Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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593 FXUS64 KLCH 060939 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 439 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 438 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Slightly cooler temperatures on tap this morning in the mid 70s. Showers have tapered out for the time being, however they will be quick to return through the day. The main drivers are the the trough that is sitting to the north of us and Beryl right south of Louisiana off the Yucatan. PWATs over most of the period are well over the 90th percentile. Daily scattered to numerous showers and storms are likely, however at the moment severe weather is not expected. The good news about the high PoPs and cloud cover is that we finally do not need a Heat Advisory for most of the area, although MaxApTs will be right south of the criteria. So it will still be plenty warm. The bad news is that with all the moisture and other factors, we could be looking at heavy rainfall over the day leading to flooding in a few areas. As a result, we have a marginal risk ERO across the entire area today. With moisture still lingering in the area, along with Beryl moving closer to the south TX coast, parts of coastal SETX and SWLA will be in a marginal risk again tomorrow. By mid Monday, Beryl is expected to make landfall then curve upwards into the upper trough. Additional moisture from the system will increase the threat for heavy rain, leading to a slight risk over the western third of the CWA. Rainfall amounts across the area over the short term range from 0.5 to 2.5 inches with locally higher amounts certainly possible. This of course is subject to change as the track changes over the coming days. The latest NHC track has shifted a bit more to the right from the previous track, with landfall now expected south of the Matagorda Bay. Impacts to our CWA are expected to be minimal, with higher impacts expected along the southern and western side of the CWA. Stronger tropical storm force winds / gusts and higher seas are likely for the western near and off shore marine zones with coastal flooding possible for coastal SETX and SWLA going into Monday morning. Stigger/87 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 438 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The long term period starts with TC Beryl, or what`s left of it, located just west of the forecast area and expected to be moving newd through Tuesday. Meanwhile, a wave crossing the Gulf will maintain/further feed the copious moisture already in place across the region courtesy of a long fetch onshore flow curling around Beryl, with forecast soundings showing PWAT values ranging from 2.1 to 2.5 inches. The combination of these features should lead to quite a bit of rainfall for the area and very elevated POPs continue to be carried through mainly the morning/afternoon hours. As expected with a nearby tropical system, heavy rainfall will be possible at times, with the entire forecast area under a slight risk for excessive rainfall in WPC`s latest outlooks for Tuesday/Tuesday night. It needs to be stressed that this forecast is based on the latest track guidance...changes to the track forecast are likely between now and Tuesday which could greatly impact expected conditions for then. As we move through Wednesday, the remains of Beryl are progged to be absorbed into a sfc frontal boundary and sweep off farther to the northeast. Meanwhile, the area will remain under a weakness aloft. Throw in the continued very moist airmass (some guidance suggests that PWATs could rise further to near 2.6 inches). While blended guidance suggests that rain chances will drop a little from Tuesday, POPs remain pretty high with daytime heating/mesoscale boundaries being the main drivers for convection. With the additional rain on top of potentially already wet grounds, WPC has highlighted the entire area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Wednesday/Wednesday night. As stated in previous discussions, coastal flooding will be a concern on Tuesday and Wednesday if current tide model trends continue with breezy erly/serly conditions translate across the coastal waters along with longer wave period swells developing in those wind conditions. Thursday and Friday see the area remaining on the wet side as moisture remains high and capping aloft remains basically nil. The good news in the long term is that with all the cloud cover/rainfall being forecast, temperatures should remain closer to seasonal norms, while peak heat index values generally look to stay below advisory criteria at this time. 25 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Convection continues to move across the region with heavy showers and frequent lightning across central Louisiana. As these storms move towards the coast they will weaken, eventually fading away after midnight. Gusts near thunderstorms will be variable and up to 30 knots. MVFR to IFR ceilings will continue for ARA and LFT while the convection moves through Acadiana. For the rest of the region, VFR to MVFR condition will continue tonight until more showers form in the morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 438 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will continue today along with seas around 1-4 feet. Winds and seas will begin to ramp up tomorrow, especially across the southern zones, with seas increasing to around 5-8ft by the evening hours and winds around SCA criteria for the marine zones south of High Island to Intracoastal. Heading into Monday conditions will deteriorate further with tropical storm conditions becoming possible mainly across the southern and western most zones. In addition, periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms will be possible across all zones, with higher winds and seas likely near thunderstorms. Winds and seas will remain elevated into Tues and Wed however, gradual improvement is anticipated to begin by early Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 90 74 92 74 / 70 20 50 20 LCH 90 78 90 78 / 70 40 60 40 LFT 92 79 93 79 / 80 30 60 20 BPT 93 79 92 79 / 70 40 60 50 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...14