203
FXUS64 KLCH 061142
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
642 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 438 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Slightly cooler temperatures on tap this morning in the mid 70s.
Showers have tapered out for the time being, however they will be
quick to return through the day. The main drivers are the the trough
that is sitting to the north of us and Beryl right south of
Louisiana off the Yucatan. PWATs over most of the period are well
over the 90th percentile. Daily scattered to numerous showers and
storms are likely, however at the moment severe weather is not
expected. The good news about the high PoPs and cloud cover is that
we finally do not need a Heat Advisory for most of the area,
although MaxApTs will be right south of the criteria. So it will
still be plenty warm. The bad news is that with all the moisture and
other factors, we could be looking at heavy rainfall over the day
leading to flooding in a few areas. As a result, we have a marginal
risk ERO across the entire area today. With moisture still lingering
in the area, along with Beryl moving closer to the south TX coast,
parts of coastal SETX and SWLA will be in a marginal risk again
tomorrow. By mid Monday, Beryl is expected to make landfall then
curve upwards into the upper trough. Additional moisture from the
system will increase the threat for heavy rain, leading to a slight
risk over the western third of the CWA. Rainfall amounts across the
area over the short term range from 0.5 to 2.5 inches with locally
higher amounts certainly possible. This of course is subject to
change as the track changes over the coming days.

The latest NHC track has shifted a bit more to the right from the
previous track, with landfall now expected south of the Matagorda
Bay. Impacts to our CWA are expected to be minimal, with higher
impacts expected along the southern and western side of the CWA.
Stronger tropical storm force winds / gusts and higher seas are
likely for the western near and off shore marine zones with coastal
flooding possible for coastal SETX and SWLA going into Monday
morning.

Stigger/87

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 438 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The long term period starts with TC Beryl, or what`s left of it,
located just west of the forecast area and expected to be moving
newd through Tuesday. Meanwhile, a wave crossing the Gulf will
maintain/further feed the copious moisture already in place across
the region courtesy of a long fetch onshore flow curling around
Beryl, with forecast soundings showing PWAT values ranging from 2.1
to 2.5 inches. The combination of these features should lead to
quite a bit of rainfall for the area and very elevated POPs continue
to be carried through mainly the morning/afternoon hours. As
expected with a nearby tropical system, heavy rainfall will be
possible at times, with the entire forecast area under a slight risk
for excessive rainfall in WPC`s latest outlooks for Tuesday/Tuesday
night. It needs to be stressed that this forecast is based on the
latest track guidance...changes to the track forecast are likely
between now and Tuesday which could greatly impact expected
conditions for then.

As we move through Wednesday, the remains of Beryl are progged to be
absorbed into a sfc frontal boundary and sweep off farther to the
northeast. Meanwhile, the area will remain under a weakness aloft.
Throw in the continued very moist airmass (some guidance suggests
that PWATs could rise further to near 2.6 inches). While blended
guidance suggests that rain chances will drop a little from Tuesday,
POPs remain pretty high with daytime heating/mesoscale boundaries
being the main drivers for convection. With the additional rain on
top of potentially already wet grounds, WPC has highlighted the
entire area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for
Wednesday/Wednesday night.

As stated in previous discussions, coastal flooding will be a
concern on Tuesday and Wednesday if current tide model trends
continue with breezy erly/serly conditions translate across the
coastal waters along with longer wave period swells developing in
those wind conditions.

Thursday and Friday see the area remaining on the wet side as
moisture remains high and capping aloft remains basically nil.

The good news in the long term is that with all the cloud
cover/rainfall being forecast, temperatures should remain closer to
seasonal norms, while peak heat index values generally look to stay
below advisory criteria at this time.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Mixed TAF categories this morning as lower IFR clouds shroud some
of the terminals. We are already seeing showers build up on radar.
Although none are in the vicinity of the terminals at present, we
can expect this activity to become widespread this morning and
afternoon. As we get closer to the evening hours, we will see this
activity begin to taper out of the area.
Stigger/87

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 438 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will continue today
along with seas around 1-4 feet. Winds and seas will begin to ramp
up tomorrow, especially across the southern zones, with seas
increasing to around 5-8ft by the evening hours and winds around
SCA criteria for the marine zones south of High Island to
Intracoastal. Heading into Monday conditions will deteriorate
further with tropical storm conditions becoming possible mainly
across the southern and western most zones. In addition, periods
of heavy rain and thunderstorms will be possible across all zones,
with higher winds and seas likely near thunderstorms. Winds and
seas will remain elevated into Tues and Wed however, gradual
improvement is anticipated to begin by early Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  74  92  74 /  70  20  50  20
LCH  90  78  90  78 /  70  40  60  40
LFT  92  79  93  79 /  80  30  60  20
BPT  93  79  92  79 /  70  40  60  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...87