413
FXUS63 KLBF 132332
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
632 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is little change in the predicted heat Sunday except
  that high cloudiness Sunday may affect afternoon temperatures.

- Heavy thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday and the
  potential for severe weather appears low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 403 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

A plume of upper level moisture residing across ID/NV/UT this
afternoon will move east into wrn/ncntl Nebraska late tonight and
remain across the region during the day Sunday and Sunday night. The
500-300mb RH in the RAP model is the basis for isolated POPs until
Sunday evening when deepening moisture will increase rain chances to
30-40 percent across ncntl Nebraska.

Severe weather chances tonight through Sunday night will favor wind
gusts over hail and the area to watch Sunday will be north central
Nebraska where MLCAPE increases to 3000J/KG accompanied by effective
shear near 45kts. The HREF shows storm development across the ncntl
zone Sunday evening. Otherwise, the models favor the super heated
air across wrn Nebraska for high based (500mb) storm development
late in the afternoon throughout the evening.

The temperature forecast Sunday could be in jeopardy given the
expected increase in cloud cover which could limit vertical mixing
below the targeted h700mb level. There is weak sfc low pressure
across the Dakotas to produce westerlies of just 10 to 15 kts at
h850-700mb. A warm front/dryline bulge should move east to near
highway 83 Sunday afternoon. 100s are in place across many areas
west of 83. H700mb temperatures should rise to 16-17C across the
west which is favorable for 100s. Given the potential for cloudiness
at times, the temperature forecast is modest and uses the short term
model blend. It is near or slightly warmer than the NBM 50th.

The latest forecast Sunday continues the Heat Advisory across all of
wrn and ncntl Nebraska. This might be generous across the Sandhills
where heat indices are projected to remain below the 100F threshold.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 403 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Temperatures aloft at h700mb will begin to cool with the arrival
of a cold front Monday but the models are waiting until late
Tuesday aftn/Tuesday night to ignite thunderstorms. Chance/low-
end likely POPs are in place and moisture will have pooled to
around 1.50 inches of PWAT. Moisture transport will be very
modest and gradual.

The overall severe weather potential Tuesday appears to be low for
this forecast for a few reasons. Wrn/ncntl Nebraska will be post-
frontal-a back door cold front will move through Monday and become
stationary across the cntl high Plains Tuesday. Sfc temperatures
will be cool. Winds aloft will be 25-45 kts at h500-300mb- which is
weak for severe weather. Storm development is expected across the
Laramie ranges and this storm activity will move east into a moist
but more stable environment. The NAM soundings show mid-level lapse
rates which are nearly moist adiabatic. So, for now it appears
weather conditions will favor ordinary thunderstorms.

The upper level ridge of high pressure producing record heat across
the wrn U.S. will amplify north into wrn Canada Wednesday through
Saturday. This will place wrn/ncntl Nebraska in a strong northwest
or even north flow aloft. The models are signaling an increase in
moisture next Saturday and this is occurring from subtropical
sources and nrn stream sources. Rain chances are isolated to low-end
chance and later forecasts will raise the POP if warranted.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue through western and north
central Nebraska tonight through tomorrow evening. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will be possible this evening across
portions of northern Nebraska, the Sandhills, and the Panhandle.
Have omitted thunder from the TAFs at this time, as confidence
remains low in thunder in vicinity of the terminals. Otherwise,
winds remain light and variable through tomorrow afternoon, with few
to scattered passing high clouds.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Sunday for NEZ004>010-
022>029-035>038-056-094.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Monday for NEZ057>059-
069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Richie