742
FXUS63 KLBF 130519
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1219 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A marginal risk (risk level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms are
  possible this evening across portions of the Panhandle and the
  Sandhills with hail, briefly strong winds, and lightning being the
  main threats.

* Dangerous heat continues through Monday with heat advisories in
  effect as heat indices rise above 100 degrees.

* Cooler temperatures return on Tuesday lasting through the end of
  the week as highs fall back into the 80s.

* Active weather returns on Tuesday with near-daily afternoon and
  evening thunderstorms, although, the risk of severe storms remains
  uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop across portions of
the Panhandle and into the Sandhills as a shortwave trough tracks
across western Nebraska. Significant instability exists across much
of the Sandhills and eastern Panhandle, however, latest model
soundings suggest enough of a capping inversion to help limit
convection. On the other hand, if a parcel can force their way
through the inversion, due to outflow from western storms,
convection will be possible further to the east. With ample
instability, these storms will have the potential to quickly become
severe before more stable air moves in after sunset. Hail and
briefly gusty winds along with frequent lightning will all be
possible in these isolated thunderstorms. An another round of more
widespread stratiform rain with embedded thunderstorms is possible
overnight, however, these are not expected to be severe.

The majority of the weather through Monday will remain calm and dry.
Some additional thunderstorm chances return on Saturday evening as
another short wave pushes through South Dakota. A stray storm may
move across northern Nebraska before quickly exiting or diminishing.

The main concern through Monday will be the extremely hot
temperatures. Latest models suggest 850 mb temperatures well into
the 28 to 32 degree C range which will result in surface high
temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. This combined with
increasing surface dewpoints will allow for heat indices to rise to
dangerous levels into the 100 to 105 range. Those with outside
activities will need to take extra precautions this weekend and into
Monday as these temperatures may result in heat related illnesses.
Heat advisories remain in effect for much of north central and
western Nebraska through Monday before temperatures begin to
moderate.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Active weather returns on Monday night as a frontal system moves
across Nebraska. Severe storms may be possible as the front provides
enough lift and instability increases through the afternoon. Storms
will develop across the Panhandle and move eastward through the
evening with the best chance for severe storms after 7pm CT.
Additional details on severe probability and development will become
clearer in the next few days.

Additional rain and thunderstorm chances continue through Thursday
as several disturbances affects the area. Near daily thunderstorm
chances are possible, however, the severe risk remains uncertain a
this time.

In addition to increased rain chances through next week, this front
will also bring much cooler temperatures to north central Nebraska.
Highs return to near normal in the 80s for Tuesday through Thursday
with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska through the evening. Currently, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are moving across the Panhandle and
southwest Nebraska. This activity will continue tracking
southeast across the Sandhills through the overnight period,
waning around sunrise. Continue to think that these storms will
remain out of vicinity of both terminal sites, though future
amendments will be possible. Otherwise, light and variable
winds continue overnight, becoming out of the southeast at 10kts
or less Saturday afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ Sunday for NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056-094.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Monday for NEZ057>059-
069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Viken