Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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390 FXUS63 KLBF 020906 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 406 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... *Isolated thunderstorm chances today *Strong to severe scattered thunderstorms possible Wednesday *Cool 4th of July, with cooler temperatures continuing through the weekend && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 403 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Kept temperatures cooler for highs today in the mid 70s across much of the forecast area, with the far southern area reaching the low 80s. For areas north of interstate 80 this is around 5 to near 10 degrees cooler than normal. As for precipitation chances today, a weak SW will kick across the Rockies and move eastward, giving the potential for an isolated thunderstorm or two this afternoon. Would expect convection to develop across the Black Hills and move into the area. The greatest potential for thunderstorms to move into the area, will generally be across northern Nebraska, along and west of HWY 83. There will be decent shear and dewpoints in the low 50s for the environment, however CAPE is marginal at best. Should a storm move into the northern Sandhills, confidence is low in any robust storm sustaining itself, however a briefly strong to severe thunderstorm can`t be completely be ruled out. Focus then turns to Wednesday where more scattered storm development is expected as an advancing trof moves into the area and provide the focus for thunderstorm development. CAPE values will be around 1000 to 2000 J/kg, with the highest CAPE values generally along and west of HWY 83. 0-3 helicity in correlation with the sig tor parameter do highlight western Nebraska, generally along and west of HWY 83 where the environment is most favorable for tornadic development, along the sfc trof. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon and evening and lingering through the overnight hours, but would expect the greatest potential for strong to severe storms in the afternoon and evening. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 403 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 A cold front moves through the area Thursday keeping temperatures quite cool for the 4th of July. Highs will only be in the low 70s north of Interstate 80 and in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees south of Interstate 80. This ranges from around 5 to near 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Models continue to hint to at least at chance of some showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon across northern Nebraska, generally north of HWY 2, but expect any precipitation to be out of the area by the evening hours. Cooler temperatures remain on Friday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s with drier conditions. The trend for cooler temperatures continues in to the weekend with the northern portions of the forecast area continuing to remain below normal through Sunday, with near normal temperatures across the southern forecast area. The weekend at this time looks to remain mostly dry. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 120 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 MVFR ceilings exist across portions of the Sandhills into southwest Nebraska. At KLBF, MVFR ceilings near OVC014 with 6SM BR until 11Z. After 11Z, widely scattered showers with a few thunderstorms will extend across portions of southwest Nebraska. Included VCTS at KLBF 11Z-17Z and 21Z until 00Z/3rd. At KVTN, VCSH 17Z-21Z. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gomez LONG TERM...Gomez AVIATION...Roberg