Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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627 FXUS63 KLBF 021206 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 706 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... *Isolated thunderstorm chances today *Strong to severe scattered thunderstorms possible Wednesday *Cool 4th of July, with cooler temperatures continuing through the weekend && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 403 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Kept temperatures cooler for highs today in the mid 70s across much of the forecast area, with the far southern area reaching the low 80s. For areas north of interstate 80 this is around 5 to near 10 degrees cooler than normal. As for precipitation chances today, a weak SW will kick across the Rockies and move eastward, giving the potential for an isolated thunderstorm or two this afternoon. Would expect convection to develop across the Black Hills and move into the area. The greatest potential for thunderstorms to move into the area, will generally be across northern Nebraska, along and west of HWY 83. There will be decent shear and dewpoints in the low 50s for the environment, however CAPE is marginal at best. Should a storm move into the northern Sandhills, confidence is low in any robust storm sustaining itself, however a briefly strong to severe thunderstorm can`t be completely be ruled out. Focus then turns to Wednesday where more scattered storm development is expected as an advancing trof moves into the area and provide the focus for thunderstorm development. CAPE values will be around 1000 to 2000 J/kg, with the highest CAPE values generally along and west of HWY 83. 0-3 helicity in correlation with the sig tor parameter do highlight western Nebraska, generally along and west of HWY 83 where the environment is most favorable for tornadic development, along the sfc trof. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon and evening and lingering through the overnight hours, but would expect the greatest potential for strong to severe storms in the afternoon and evening. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 403 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 A cold front moves through the area Thursday keeping temperatures quite cool for the 4th of July. Highs will only be in the low 70s north of Interstate 80 and in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees south of Interstate 80. This ranges from around 5 to near 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Models continue to hint to at least at chance of some showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon across northern Nebraska, generally north of HWY 2, but expect any precipitation to be out of the area by the evening hours. Cooler temperatures remain on Friday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s with drier conditions. The trend for cooler temperatures continues in to the weekend with the northern portions of the forecast area continuing to remain below normal through Sunday, with near normal temperatures across the southern forecast area. The weekend at this time looks to remain mostly dry. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 706 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 VFR ceilings are expected today as scattered showers linger through the day. -RA at KLBF through 15Z, then VCTS 21Z-00Z/3rd. Becoming FEW250 after 02Z at the KLBF and KVTN terminals. Winds to remain 10KT or less through tonight. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gomez LONG TERM...Gomez AVIATION...Roberg