Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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053 FXUS63 KLBF 042325 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 625 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few additional showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across northern Nebraska, with no severe weather expected. - A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe weather on Saturday for most of western and north central Nebraska. - Temperatures remain below seasonal averages through early next week, before a return to warmer temperatures mid week. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Upper air analysis and satellite imagery place a trough over the Northern and Central Plains, with a trough axis through western Nebraska into Colorado. At the surface, a low pressure system is located over eastern South Dakota and southwest Minnesota, with a cold front through western Iowa and southeast Nebraska. This low is producing widespread showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota, with additional isolated showers over the western Dakotas into northern Nebraska. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 In vicinity of the low over South Dakota, wrap around precipitation will continue to push into northern Nebraska the rest of this afternoon and early evening. With relatively weak forcing, precipitation should mostly fall as light showers, though a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. The low will continue its trek to the east-northeast and as it moves out of the area, showers should cease during the evening. Afterwards, a quiet night is expected, with temperatures into the 50s for most of the region, though some areas of northwest Nebraska may get a bit cooler, into the upper 40s. For Friday, temperatures will remain below seasonal in the post cold frontal environment, with widespread temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. For reference, the average daily high temperature for western Nebraska in July is 90 degrees. For the most part, Friday should be dry for most of the region, though a few showers could be possible across portions of northern Nebraska. Latest guidance was not overly optimistic on precipitation chances and remained on the drier side. The forecast follows along with this drier guidance, so have limited chances of precipitation to a brief potential of showers across northern Nebraska Friday afternoon, and have left the mention out for the rest of the afternoon and evening. If the precipitation gets a bit more robust than scattered showers, this could potentially be bumped up a bit in the next forecast cycles. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Saturday brings the next potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, with a Marginal Risk for severe weather. The upper level flow will continue to slowly track eastward, and should mostly still be in place over the western United States on Saturday. An upper level disturbance is projected to move through the upper level flow across the Northern Plains, which may enhance some lee cyclogenesis in Wyoming. As the surface low tracks east and gains strength, there could be enough focus to generate a few showers and thunderstorms, partly depending on the moisture return across the Plains. Some question may remain on the convective mode, as there is some potential for upscale growth into a linear system. The question remains whether or not storms will have a chance to remain discrete beforehand. Beyond Saturday, the slowly moving trough begins to make its exit from the region, with northwest flow aloft on Sunday and a ridge attempting to build in on Monday. Timing remains in question on when the ridge begins to settle across the region. GEFS spaghetti plots are generally in agreement on the ridging building in, but the most disagreement occurs over Kansas and Nebraska. Part of this may be influenced the expected landfall of Beryl and the models attempting to handle the height falls. However, other tracks in the spaghetti plots are further to the east, in an attempt to speed the trough through. Cluster analysis also hints to this variance in 500 mb heights, suggesting some question to the timing of the ridge settling in. Regardless, the weather pattern is expected to quiet down as ridging builds in. Daily high temperatures will typically remain below seasonal averages through the early week as the ridging settles in. By mid week, temperatures trend more towards average as the ridge settles in. Precipitation chances will also remain limited beyond Monday, with a slight chance of showers at most during the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A couple aviation weather concerns through the forecast period include scattered showers and storms through sunset affecting northern terminals (VTN) and gusty northwest winds tomorrow. Primarily VFR is anticipated aside from briefly lower cigs from passing showers. After light winds overnight, northwesterly gusts to 20 kts are likely tomorrow by midday. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Richie SHORT TERM...Richie LONG TERM...Richie AVIATION...Snively