Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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217 FXUS63 KLBF 061757 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1257 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered severe storms are possible across wrn and ncntl Nebraska this afternoon. The hazards are large or very large hail and wind damage. Confidence for storm development is medium. - The risk of severe weather Sunday through Friday is low. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 An upper level low circulating across the nrn Plains this morning will move east into the Dakotas this afternoon. A surge of strong 30-50kt h500-300mb winds on the south side of the low will push into Nebraska and trigger a round of strong to severe storms by early to mid afternoon. The focus is a weak frontal boundary positioned across the cntl Sandhills and ncntl Nebraska. The best guess on timing of storm development according to the HREF and CAMs is 18z with storm activity moving east and southeast out of the area by 00z. Additional strong to severe storms are possible farther south during the afternoon, along and east of highway 83 where a cold front will be moving through. Local studies suggest the potential for significant hail as suggested by the SPC outlook. Cold air aloft, -13C at h500mb, strong deep layer shear near 50kts and steep lapse rates 7+ C/km at h850- 500mb support the potential for very large hail. The HRRR also shows 60+ mph gusts developing as the storm activity grows upscale across cntl Nebraska. The tornado threat remains low and the reason for this is weak winds below 700mb, generally less than 20kts. There will be a brief window of stronger low level winds at the onset of storm development. Otherwise, hodographs are fairly linear supporting storm splitting and upscale growth as the system moves eastward. The next rain chance develops Saturday night and Sunday with the approach of a second UA disturbance moving through srn British Columbia this morning. This rain chance is mainly diurnally driven favoring Sunday afternoon for the best chance. The atmosphere will be cool and moist, 2-5C at h700mb with h850-300mb RH 60-80 percent. This rain will also be post frontal and the risk of severe weather is low. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 An upper level trof of cold air will be passing through Nebraska Monday. Cool moist air will remain across wrn/ncntl Nebraska as this happens and the NAM soundings would seem to support diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms but there is no upper level support shown in the model. The forecast is dry. The models show a second trof dropping through Nebraska Wednesday and the ECM suggests an isolated rain chance. NBM POPs are very spartan for this event and later forecasts may increase rain chances to slight or low-end chance. Once this trof moves east, heights will gradually rise in response to an upper level ridge across the wrn U.S. building east. Dry and warmer weather is likely across wrn/ncntl Nebraska Thursday through Saturday. The focus for rain appears to be farther north across the upper Midwest during this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Isolated thunderstorms will become more scattered and numerous throughout the afternoon. Some storms may become severe with large hail, strong and erratic winds, and an isolated tornado as the main threats. Main area of development will be across southwest and central Nebraska, impacting KLBF during the late afternoon hours. Thunderstorms will push off to the east by 00Z with overcast skies continuing through Sunday morning. Across the north (KVTN), thunderstorms should remain south of the terminal with just some brief lowering of clouds expected. Improvement in ceilings returns Sunday morning. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...Kulik