Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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646 FXUS63 KLBF 071742 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1242 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms persist through this morning across southwest Nebraska, with expanding chances (30-40%) of thunderstorms this afternoon across much of western and north central Nebraska. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time. - Conditions then turn drier for much of the upcoming week, with temperatures returning back to above average (upper 90s to low 100s) for late week and next weekend. - The increasing temperatures late week will lead to increased heat concerns, and those with outdoor interests should monitor later forecasts. - Fire weather concerns may increase into next weekend as well, as an overlap of very warm, dry, and breezy conditions look to occur across western Nebraska. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Currently, renewed shower and thunderstorm development is underway across portions of the Panhandle and southwest Nebraska, in the vicinity of broad low pressure across northeastern Colorado. This activity is expected to persist through sunrise, before gradually pushing south of the area by late morning. A brief minimum in precipitation coverage is anticipated early this afternoon, before expansion in scattered thunderstorm development across much of western and north central Nebraska late afternoon. Flow aloft weakens into this afternoon as the upper low begins to lift northeastward through the upper Midwest away from the area, and this leads to lesser deep layer wind shear. Instability will be much more meager today as well (MLCAPE ~500-1000 J/kg) as lapse rates become less steep aloft. This is in response to moisture streaming in just ahead of the mid-level trough axis, with lapse rates approaching moist adiabatic in the mid-levels this afternoon. The combination of lesser shear and instability should keep any severe weather threat minimal, though locally heavy rain (as PWAT values remain ~1.00-1.25") and lightning will still be a threat in any thunderstorms this afternoon. The combination of a loss of diurnal heating and rising heights aloft on the backside of the departing trough axis should end any lingering convection across the area late this evening. Dry conditions persist overnight tonight, with lows falling into the upper 40s (northwest NE) to low 50s as dry air, clearing skies, and weaker northwest winds are ushered into the area in association with surface ridging spilling southward into the central Plains. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 More benign weather is in store as we head into next week, as the remnants of the tropical system Beryl slide northeast across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and upper ridging amplifies across the Four Corners. This leads to persistent and weak northerly flow aloft, with the mean steering flow keeping any high terrain convection off to the west of the local area. The stagnant upper air pattern will also keep the area largely devoid of any airmass changes, with temperatures slowly moderating through the week. By late week, the upper ridge begins to translate eastward into the Plains, with H5 heights exceeding the 90th percentile climo by Friday. This coincides with increasing low level warm advection, and should push temperatures to above average for Friday and the weekend. In fact, a growing signal exists in ensemble guidance, with probabilities of temperatures exceeding 100F increasing for areas along and west of HWY 83 both Saturday and Sunday. Though confidence in how much boundary layer moisture will be present remains lowered for now, increasing heat concerns can be expected across the entire area by this weekend. Those with outdoor plans should monitor later forecasts closely, as confidence increases in the degree of heat risk across the area. Will also have to monitor the potential for increasing fire weather concerns as we head into late week, as guidance continues to hint at very deep mixing and lowered humidity across western Nebraska. This threat could be enhanced due to the prolonged period of drying fuels as precipitation chances look to be minimal through the entire week. The deep mixing will also promote good downward momentum transfer of stronger winds aloft, and breezy conditions may overlap the very warm and dry air at times. Trends will continue to be monitored closely, as near critical to critical fire weather conditions may develop this weekend across western Nebraska. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Isolated showers will continue across portions of north central Nebraska through this afternoon. At this time, shower activity will remain to the east of both terminals and should not result in any major impacts. VFR conditions will then return through Monday morning with light winds (under 10 knots) and ceilings above 10 kft. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Brown LONG TERM...Brown AVIATION...Kulik