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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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220 FXUS63 KLBF 070514 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1214 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * A slight risk (risk level 2 of 5) of severe weather is possible through early evening with hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter, severe winds up to 65 mph, and isolated tornadoes as the primary threats. * Isolated thunderstorms are possible again on Sunday across the region, although the severe risk remains low with heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding being the main concern. * Quieter and cooler weather (temperatures in the 70s) is expected for next week before temperatures increase back into the 90s by the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Scattered thunderstorms across portions of southwest and north central Nebraska currently present on radar will continue to push eastward into eastern Nebraska through this evening. While the severe threat is winding down, some isolated storms may still produce some large hail up to 2 inches in diameter, strong winds up to 65 mph and an isolated tornado. In addition, heavy rainfall combined with training of storms will cause a localized flooding concern across portions of the region. A flash flood warning has been issued for Custer county as this area has been particularly hard hit with several rounds of thunderstorms this afternoon. Conditions will gradually improve this evening and overnight as storms come to an end and water will be allowed to recede. Cooler air will push in behind the departing system tonight dropping high temperatures into the mid 70s on Sunday. A return to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected for Sunday as a shortwave trough tracks across southwest Nebraska. Cooler temperatures combined with limited stability will limit severe potential. However a few stronger storms are still possible that may result in some small hail. Localized flooding will also be a concern again as heavy rainfall falls on saturated ground. Any heavy rainfall should be short lived and flooding should remain brief. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Upper level ridging across the western US will allow for surface high pressure to build southward into the Great Plains on Monday lasting through much of next week. Cooler air will continue to push into the region keeping highs in the upper 70s to low 80s; nearly 10 degrees below normal. Temperatures will gradually warm throughout the week, returning into the 90s by next weekend. While the majority of next week remains quiet, a few isolated chances for rain showers and thunderstorms return on Wednesday. At this time, the majority of the storms will remain across eastern Nebraska, however, some of our eastern counties (Wheeler, Garfield, Custer) may see some brief storm development, especially in the late afternoon when diurnal heating is at it`s peak. At this time, severe storms are not anticipated, but this may change in the upcoming days. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 An upper level low circulating across the Dakotas will cause unsettled weather across wrn/ncntl Nebraska Sunday morning. Weather conditions across swrn Nebraska are expected to become favorable for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms from 08z-18z Sunday morning affecting areas along and south of Interstate 80. Another flight concern is the potential for MVFR/IFR ceilings/vsbys across scntl Nebraska 09z-15z Sunday morning. VFR and isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA coverage is expected 18z-00z Sunday afternoon. There are no flight concerns 00z-06z Sunday evening. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kulik LONG TERM...Kulik AVIATION...CDC