682
FXUS63 KLBF 071112
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
612 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Showers and thunderstorms persist through this morning
   across southwest Nebraska, with expanding chances (30-40%) of
   thunderstorms this afternoon across much of western and
   north central Nebraska. Severe weather is not anticipated at
   this time.

-  Conditions then turn drier for much of the upcoming week,
   with temperatures returning back to above average (upper 90s
   to low 100s) for late week and next weekend.

-  The increasing temperatures late week will lead to increased
   heat concerns, and those with outdoor interests should
   monitor later forecasts.

-  Fire weather concerns may increase into next weekend as
   well, as an overlap of very warm, dry, and breezy conditions
   look to occur across western Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Currently, renewed shower and thunderstorm development is underway
across portions of the Panhandle and southwest Nebraska, in the
vicinity of broad low pressure across northeastern Colorado. This
activity is expected to persist through sunrise, before gradually
pushing south of the area by late morning. A brief minimum in
precipitation coverage is anticipated early this afternoon, before
expansion in scattered thunderstorm development across much of
western and north central Nebraska late afternoon. Flow aloft
weakens into this afternoon as the upper low begins to lift
northeastward through the upper Midwest away from the area, and this
leads to lesser deep layer wind shear. Instability will be much more
meager today as well (MLCAPE ~500-1000 J/kg) as lapse rates become
less steep aloft. This is in response to moisture streaming in
just ahead of the mid-level trough axis, with lapse rates
approaching moist adiabatic in the mid-levels this afternoon.
The combination of lesser shear and instability should keep any
severe weather threat minimal, though locally heavy rain (as
PWAT values remain ~1.00-1.25") and lightning will still be a
threat in any thunderstorms this afternoon. The combination of a
loss of diurnal heating and rising heights aloft on the
backside of the departing trough axis should end any lingering
convection across the area late this evening.

Dry conditions persist overnight tonight, with lows falling into the
upper 40s (northwest NE) to low 50s as dry air, clearing skies, and
weaker northwest winds are ushered into the area in association with
surface ridging spilling southward into the central Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

More benign weather is in store as we head into next week, as the
remnants of the tropical system Beryl slide northeast across
the Mid-Mississippi Valley and upper ridging amplifies across
the Four Corners. This leads to persistent and weak northerly
flow aloft, with the mean steering flow keeping any high terrain
convection off to the west of the local area. The stagnant
upper air pattern will also keep the area largely devoid of any
airmass changes, with temperatures slowly moderating through the
week. By late week, the upper ridge begins to translate
eastward into the Plains, with H5 heights exceeding the 90th
percentile climo by Friday. This coincides with increasing low
level warm advection, and should push temperatures to above
average for Friday and the weekend. In fact, a growing signal
exists in ensemble guidance, with probabilities of temperatures
exceeding 100F increasing for areas along and west of HWY 83
both Saturday and Sunday. Though confidence in how much boundary
layer moisture will be present remains lowered for now,
increasing heat concerns can be expected across the entire area
by this weekend. Those with outdoor plans should monitor later
forecasts closely, as confidence increases in the degree of heat
risk across the area.

Will also have to monitor the potential for increasing fire weather
concerns as we head into late week, as guidance continues to hint at
very deep mixing and lowered humidity across western Nebraska. This
threat could be enhanced due to the prolonged period of drying fuels
as precipitation chances look to be minimal through the entire week.
The deep mixing will also promote good downward momentum
transfer of stronger winds aloft, and breezy conditions may
overlap the very warm and dry air at times. Trends will continue
to be monitored closely, as near critical to critical fire
weather conditions may develop this weekend across western
Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 607 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Periods of light rain, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms extend west into ern WY this morning. All of this
rain will move south and east this morning and early this
afternoon generally affecting areas along and south of highway
2. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible north of
highway 2 today. Dry air below 10,000 feet will likely maintain
VFR ceilings today.

Dry air will continue to move into wrn and ncntl Nebraska
tonight leading to VFR ceilings and little or no chance of rain.
There are no flight concerns 00z-12z tonight/Monday morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...CDC