Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
174 FXUS62 KKEY 131510 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1110 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1115 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Composite vorticity analysis places the axis of a tropical easterly wave oriented from central Cuba northeastward to the northern Bahamas. Convection associated with the wave has flourished over the past several hours to the southeast of our eastern distant Straits of Florida coastal waters. Closer to home, showers associated with the fringes of the wave have struggled to make it to the island chain. Skies are generally partly cloudy cloudy across the CWA, with temperatures quickly inching towards 90F. For the rest of today, most convective allowing model (CAM) guidance suggests convection should continue to wane as it approaches the island chain. However, aforementioned upward satellite trends are hard to ignore, and thus elected to nudge measurable rain chances (PoPs) up to around 50/50 for the balance of today. There will certainly be more dry than wet periods, and ample solar insolation should still allow temperatures to peak in the lower 90s at most communities. Other than the augmented rain chances, no changes proposed for this late morning update. && .MARINE... Issued at 1115 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, winds will strengthen slightly this weekend as high pressure becomes aligned across Central Florida. Winds will ease off beginning early next week as the ridge weakens and retreats eastward. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period, but showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the islands may lead to short-term amendments in the afternoon and evening for intermittent MVFR conditions. Near surface winds will remain easterly near 10 knots, but any showers or thunderstorms that move onsite will lead to a short period of variable gusty winds. KEYW TAF is currently AMD NOT SKED due to an ASOS outage. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 83 90 83 / 40 30 40 40 Marathon 91 83 91 83 / 50 30 40 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest