106
FXUS62 KKEY 140250
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1050 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1050 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

It has been an active evening across the eastern Florida Keys
coastal waters. Multiple Special Marine Warnings have been issued
for strong thunderstorms traversing through the Straits of Florida
and Hawk Channel. Some of this activity has reached the Upper
Keys, and land-based observations are measuring gusts of near 30
knots. Meanwhile, the Lower Keys have remained rain-free.
Tonight`s 00Z sounding sampled a moist, uninhibited environment,
with ample CAPE, which has allowed this convective activity to
thrive. This activity and enhanced moisture profile is thanks to
the passing of a tropical easterly wave near the Keys. In the
lower levels, an expansive area of high pressure in the North
Atlantic extends across Florida and the island chain. Marine
observation platforms are measuring winds of 10 to 15 knots along
the Reef outside of convection.

For tonight, the aforementioned high will strengthen, so a slight
increase in winds is expected. In terms of rainfall, have decided
to nudge PoPs up to 50% for the Upper and Middle Keys to account
for the activity moving through. Hi-res models have struggled with
the evolution of these showers and thunderstorms over the course
of the evening, but are suggesting a lull after the current
activity moves through. Temperatures outside of rain- cooled areas
will only drop into the lower to mid 80s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1050 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the
Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a ridge axis
associated with an area of high pressure over the North Atlantic
will remain north of the Florida Keys, resulting in gentle to
occasionally moderate east to southeast breezes through Thursday.
Moisture undulations in the easterlies will result in somewhat
elevated rain and thunder chances through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH through the TAF period.
Showers and thunderstorms in the Straits of Florida may move
towards MTH overnight, so have included mention of showers for a
few hours. Have also included a TEMPO for winds and SHRA, with
MVFR CIGS. Surface winds outside of convection will be from the
east at 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 2023, the daily record high temperature of 99F was recorded. This
is also tied for the warmest temperature ever recorded for the month
of July, or any month, for the Marathon area. Temperature records
date back to 1950.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  83  91  81  90 /  30  30  50  50
Marathon  83  92  81  90 /  30  30  50  50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...NB
Aviation/Nowcasts....NB
Data Acquisition.....DR

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