492
FXUS62 KKEY 140803
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
403 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Currently - Surface through mid level Atlantic ridging stretches
westward across the Florida Peninsula. Meanwhile, a very broad
lower tropospheric trough is working its way westward across the
greater Antilles. The modestly pinched pressure gradient is
resulting in gentle to moderate broadly easterly breezes across
the Keys and surrounding this morning. The above along with
associated increased lower level moisture has supported episodes
of scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms. There is
sufficient breaks in the action to allow day time highs push 90
while the increased flux has pushed dew points solidly into the
upper 70s.

Forecast - The Atlantic ridged will remain draped across the
Florida Peninsula through the week with subtle undulations both in
strength and north/south positioning. The previously mentioned
broad lower tropospheric trough will take a few days to clear west
of our area. The combination of the moderately increased flow,
along with elevated moisture and cyclonic curvature will continue
to be supportive of episodes of showers and thunderstorms rolling
generally westward across the forecast area. That said, day time
highs will usually reach near 90 and overnight lows will settle in
the mid 80s. Dew points should remain in the upper 70s. Dew points
will be key as it will be a key variable determining the necessity
for daily Heat Advisories.

Heading into mid week the Atlantic ridge will remain across
Florida. However, the lower level trough will have cleared west of
our area. This will result in decreased lower level moisture,
slightly weaker flow and lower level convective forcing. As a
result, expect rain chances to slip to low to mid chance and may
fall further later in the week. The slackening flow should also
allow dew points to slip a couple of points into the mid 70s. This
will reduce the potential for Heat Advisories.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 157 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Atlantic ridging will remain across the Florida Peninsula through
the forecast. Undulations in passing waves to the south and day
time heating will result in periodic surges and lulls in mostly
easterly breezes. Peaks will tend to be in the evening and early
night hours and lull during the day. At this time, cautions do
not appear likely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 157 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH throughout the TAF
period. Shower activity cannot be fully ruled out for today, but
with lack of confidence on timing and development location, mentions
have been left out of the TAFs for the time being. Near surface
winds will be easterly at 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1959, the daily record low temperature of 71F was
recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back
to 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....AP

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