Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
492 FXUS62 KKEY 140803 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 403 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 157 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Currently - Surface through mid level Atlantic ridging stretches westward across the Florida Peninsula. Meanwhile, a very broad lower tropospheric trough is working its way westward across the greater Antilles. The modestly pinched pressure gradient is resulting in gentle to moderate broadly easterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding this morning. The above along with associated increased lower level moisture has supported episodes of scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms. There is sufficient breaks in the action to allow day time highs push 90 while the increased flux has pushed dew points solidly into the upper 70s. Forecast - The Atlantic ridged will remain draped across the Florida Peninsula through the week with subtle undulations both in strength and north/south positioning. The previously mentioned broad lower tropospheric trough will take a few days to clear west of our area. The combination of the moderately increased flow, along with elevated moisture and cyclonic curvature will continue to be supportive of episodes of showers and thunderstorms rolling generally westward across the forecast area. That said, day time highs will usually reach near 90 and overnight lows will settle in the mid 80s. Dew points should remain in the upper 70s. Dew points will be key as it will be a key variable determining the necessity for daily Heat Advisories. Heading into mid week the Atlantic ridge will remain across Florida. However, the lower level trough will have cleared west of our area. This will result in decreased lower level moisture, slightly weaker flow and lower level convective forcing. As a result, expect rain chances to slip to low to mid chance and may fall further later in the week. The slackening flow should also allow dew points to slip a couple of points into the mid 70s. This will reduce the potential for Heat Advisories. && .MARINE... Issued at 157 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Atlantic ridging will remain across the Florida Peninsula through the forecast. Undulations in passing waves to the south and day time heating will result in periodic surges and lulls in mostly easterly breezes. Peaks will tend to be in the evening and early night hours and lull during the day. At this time, cautions do not appear likely. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 157 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH throughout the TAF period. Shower activity cannot be fully ruled out for today, but with lack of confidence on timing and development location, mentions have been left out of the TAFs for the time being. Near surface winds will be easterly at 10 to 15 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1959, the daily record low temperature of 71F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest