Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
431 FXUS62 KKEY 110858 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 458 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 455 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 It`s feeling like a typical early summer morning in the Florida Keys. While the island chain has remained generally dry through the night, a few showers have started percolating in our western waters. Gentle easterly breezes observed along the Reef seem to have kept radiational cooling at bay with temperatures in the island communities reporting in the lower to mid 80s. Dewpoints remain in the upper 70s resulting in yet another moist start to the day. Today is a proper return to near normal conditions for this time of year. The surface ridge nosing west out from the North Atlantic has finally reached mainland Florida resulting in our easterly wind direction. While not a particularly ideal direction for cloudline development, upstream tropical moisture will still be advected into our area allowing for some shower development throughout today. Outside of boundaries ejected from South Florida and Cuba, sources of lift will be somewhat scarce. Opted to keep PoPs chances near normal as a result. Meanwhile, another day of forecasted highs in the low 90s paired with dewpoints in the upper 70s has led to the issuance of a Heat Advisory for the Florida Keys. The previously mentioned ridge will be the main feature in control for the early half of the week. Easterly breezes will remain generally gentle to moderate with peaks found overnight and lulls during the day. Rain chances will float around near normal with the small exception of Tuesday when a larger mass of tropical moisture is expected to roll through. Later in the week, a trough is progged to cut through the east coast of CONUS. This feature, along with a tropical disturbance that could develop near the Antilles later this week, will force the low level ridge to recede east resulting in light and variable winds across the Keys. As the disturbance has yet to form, there is still good amount of uncertainty in the exact details of the extended forecast so stay tuned! && .MARINE... Issued at 455 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a ridge axis will continue to extend north of Keys coastal waters. Gentle to moderate easterly breezes will dominate through Wednesday night as the ridge axis remains over the Florida Peninsula. Expect slackening breezes and a gradual shift to northerlies on Thursday as a weak front moves south from the continental United States into central Florida. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 455 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH through the TAF period. A few isolated showers cannot be ruled out starting around sunrise through midday, so have kept VCSH in both TAFs for now. Surface winds will be east to southeast at 6 to 11 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1913, the daily record cold high temperature of 81F was recorded in Key West. This is also tied for the coldest high temperature ever recorded in August. Temperature records in Key West date back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 91 83 91 83 / 30 30 30 30 Marathon 91 83 92 83 / 30 30 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....NB Data Acquisition.....NB Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest