Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
783 FXUS62 KKEY 091843 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 243 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 It has been another humid day across the Florida Keys. GOES Visible satellite imagery is depicting partly to mostly cloudy skies across the island chain this afternoon. This cloud cover has helped keep temperatures from reaching their full potential for most of the day, but some areas are seeing the sun peaking through now and temperatures are quickly shooting up into the lower 90s. Land-based observation sites in most island communities are measuring heat indices between 104-110 degrees this afternoon aside from Key West, which is where the thickest cloud cover still remains. Luckily, there has been a decent breeze for most of the day, which has tried to keep it at least bearable outside for a short period of time. Despite the widespread cloud cover, shower development has been limited to the distant SE Gulf along a boundary moving northwest. The lack of shower activity is unsurprising due to the Saharan dust currently across the region. CIMSS MIMIC TPW is highlighting PW values between roughly the 10th to the 25th percentile for today. This very dry air has quickly squashed any shower`s dreams of actually developing today. Mostly dry conditions will continue through the next few forecast periods. The dry airmass caused by Saharan dust will remain parked across our area through at least mid-week. Guidance keeps pushing the return of any meaningful moisture back, so will continue to monitor this trend. Ridging will be the dominant feature through the week and will generally maintain gentle to moderate breezes. A brief slackening and backing of winds to the northeast to east on Thursday is possible, so this could make for favorable conditions for cloud line development. Have maintained 30% rain chances to account of this on Thursday. Thursday night through Saturday, a weak tropical wave will move across the area, with the best moisture making an appearance on Friday night and Saturday. As of now, this is the best chance for measurable rainfall through the extended forecast (40%), and rain chance will only be slightly higher than climatology for this time of year. We have entered the rain slump of summer after a wet June! Heat will be the main concern this week, with temperatures reaching the lower 90s each day and only dropping into the lower to mid 80s at night. Dew points will remain in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees, making for very humid conditions. Remember to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if you are planning on being outside for extended periods or are doing strenuous outdoor activities. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, gentle to occasionally moderate east to southeast breezes will prevail across the Florida Keys coastal waters through the rest of the work week, as high pressure remains in place from the Atlantic across the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. The high will strengthen over the western Atlantic this weekend, bringing moderate easterly breezes to the Keys waters Saturday through at least Sunday night. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 VFR and dry conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the TAF period, with near surface winds east to southeast near 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2005, Hurricane Dennis hammered the Keys. It produced a cool high temperature of 82F and 4.25" of rain at Key West International Airport on the 9th, both daily records. This is the only Hurricane to directly affect the Keys during the month of July in the last hundred years. Rainfall records date back to 1871 and temperature records date back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 84 91 84 91 / 10 10 10 30 Marathon 84 91 83 91 / 10 10 20 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...NB Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest