Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
333 FXUS62 KKEY 101851 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 251 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Showers have continued to struggle to develop within the Florida Keys forecast area. A few showers have begun to develop on the Mainland, but even those showers have struggled in comparison to a normal summer day. The Saharan dust has shunted any type of convective development today. Cloud cover has waned some this afternoon, and partly cloudy skies are prevailing across the island chain. Temperatures have risen into the lower 90s and dew points are near 80 degrees in most island communities, making for a steamy afternoon. The high in the North Atlantic has retreated eastward some since this morning, resulting in a weakening of winds. Marine observation platforms along the Reef are measuring light winds in the eastern waters and winds between 5 to 10 knots in the western waters. The lack of wind and rainfall has made for a very stagnant feeling outside. Minimal changes were made to the forecast this cycle. The dry airmass that has been parked over South Florida and the Gulf will persist overnight. Forecast soundings suggest that we will see an increase in moisture beginning tomorrow. Coinciding with this marginal moisture return will be the continued slackening of winds. Winds will also back to the northeast tomorrow, so this could be a favorable environment for cloud line development. There are two things that could potentially impede the development of showers and thunderstorms along a potential cloud line; if the moisture return is not substantial enough to support development and the backing of winds aloft. Have maintained 30% for now. A weak tropical wave will approach from the east by the end of the week. The best moisture will make an appearance on starting Friday night through Saturday. Have nudged rain chances up for Saturday, which is in line with MOS guidance. Thereafter, deep ridging will build in and slugs of deep tropical moisture will round the periphery of the ridge across the Keys Sunday through the remainder of the extended forecast. 30% rain chances have been maintained for all of these forecast period due to the low confidence in the exact timing of the most favorable environment for convective development. As confidence increases, rain chances will likely be nudged up for a few periods. Temperatures through next week will remain seasonable, with highs reaching the lower 90s each day and lows dropping only into the lower to mid 80s. The diurnal range of temperatures will only be 5 to 10 degrees, with the higher end of the range due to rain- cooled environments. Dew points will be in the upper 70s, so the humid Florida Keys summer is in full swing. && .MARINE... Issued at 251 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, gentle east to southeast breezes will prevail across the Florida Keys coastal waters through the rest of the work week, as high pressure remains in place from the Atlantic across the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. The high will strengthen over the western Atlantic this weekend, bringing moderate easterly breezes to the Keys waters Saturday through at least Sunday night. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 251 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the TAF period. Later this evening some convection could come off mainland and move toward the terminals but confidence in timing and likelihood is low , so will leave VCSH out of the TAFs for the time being. Near surface winds are east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1965, the daily record rainfall of 2.27" was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records date back to 1871. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 84 91 83 91 / 10 30 20 20 Marathon 84 91 83 91 / 10 30 20 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...NB Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest