Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
371 FXUS62 KKEY 110852 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 452 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 452 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 We saw a bit of action late last night as residual convection off the east coast of mainland South Florida slid into the northeastern Straits of Florida. A few thunderstorms popped up from a quick moving outflow boundary released by previous convection, taking advantage of untouched atmosphere. Remarkably, a gust of 40 knots was recorded at the Weatherflow station located on Carysfort Reef Light as one of the initial cells passed over and likely mixed some of the drier air from the mid levels down. This activity spread over the Upper Key into the Florida Bay and out to the distant Straits before decaying. Now only a lone shower is left in the Straits as the rest lost their source of lift. Moderate easterly breezes are observed along the Reef early this morning behind a boundary left by the dissipating storms. Enhanced breezes behind the boundary will linger until it starts to dissipate after sunrise. From then, breezes will slacken and gradually veer to the northeast to east. Meanwhile, an upper level low will meander towards the Florida Space Coast from the western North Atlantic, slinging a spoke of moisture south towards our CWA. The previously mentioned change in wind direction not only be favorable for cloud line development, but also allow for showers from mainland to drift into our waters as they ride along the moisture spoke. Recent CAM runs suggest scattered coverage of showers for most of the day. Have bumped up PoPs to 40% to account for some greater confidence in rain today but still remain within the extremes of MOS guidance as previous showers didn`t make much headway earlier this morning. More wet weather is on tap for this weekend as a weak tropical wave moves in from the east. While MOS guidance has pulled back on PoPs a touch, opted to retain our high end chance PoPs for Saturday as the first wave of moisture passes through South Florida. Another round looks to be progged to move through by the start of next week with Monday looking like the next wet day. But as timing is still in flux and generally uncertain, near normal rain chances are held for Sunday night onward into the extended forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 452 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, light to gentle easterly breezes will prevail across the Florida Keys coastal waters through the rest of the work week, as high pressure remains in place from the Atlantic across the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. The high will strengthen over the western Atlantic this weekend, bringing moderate easterly breezes to the Keys waters Saturday through at least Sunday night. Breezes will begin to slack on Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 452 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through Thursday evening. However, there will be a significant chance for island cloud line development and/or southward moving outflow boundaries to impact either terminal during the afternoon and evening hours. Accordingly, have introduced VCSH for now, with more precise impact forecasts to come later based mainly on short-term radar trends. Outside of any convective influences, surface winds will remain mainly from the east at 5 to 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... In Key West, July 11, 2015 was the last day of 28 consecutive days with low temperatures of 80 degrees or warmer, the longest such stretch on record. 2020 made a run for this record, but fell just short, ending a 27-day streak with lows of 80 degrees or warmer on July 14th. Temperature records in Key West date back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 91 82 90 83 / 30 10 20 20 Marathon 91 82 91 82 / 40 20 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....Jacobson Data Acquisition.....Jacobson Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest