186
FXUS62 KKEY 111453
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1053 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1004 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

KBYX is currently tracking a small cluster of showers in the
offshore waters well to the north of Key West, and this cluster is
pushing westward out of our coastal zones. The radar is also
detecting multiple boundaries across the forecast areas, and these
will continue to be monitored as boundary collisions could lead to
shower and thunderstorm development. The 12Z sounding from KEY
calculated approximately 2800 J/kg of surface CAPE as well as
little to no inhibition. With this being said, we will go ahead
and keep the 40 percent PoPs in the forecast for today to account
for the scattered coverage that can come from any development.
Along the island chain, light breezes out of the east to southeast
are helping to keep the air moving. Current temperatures are in
the mid to upper 80s coupled with dewpoints in the upper 70s,
which means heat indices are already in the upper 90s. Needless to
say, we will take whatever breezes we can get in order to keep
the air feeling stagnant.

With all of this said, the forecast is playing out as expected,
so no changes are needed.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1004 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the
Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, light to gentle
easterly breezes will prevail across the Florida Keys coastal
waters through the rest of the work week, as high pressure remains
in place from the Atlantic across the Florida peninsula and into
the Gulf of Mexico. The high will strengthen over the western
Atlantic this weekend, bringing moderate easterly breezes to the
Keys waters Saturday through at least Sunday night. Breezes will
begin to slack on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1004 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through t.
tomorrow morning, however, there is a chance for both cloud line
development this afternoon, as well as convection moving off the
Mainland this evening. Have included VCSH at both terminals starting
at 16Z, and short term amendments may be necessary. Outside of
convection, surface winds will remain mainly from the east at 5 to
10 knots. Winds will briefly back to the northeast to east later
this afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In Key West, July 11, 2015 was the last day of 28 consecutive days
with low temperatures of 80 degrees or warmer, the longest such
stretch on record. 2020 made a run for this record, but fell just
short, ending a 27-day streak with lows of 80 degrees or warmer on
July 14th. Temperature records in Key West date back to 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  91  82  90  83 /  30  10  20  20
Marathon  91  82  91  82 /  40  20  30  30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...DP
Aviation/Nowcasts....NB
Data Acquisition.....NB

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