Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
275 FXUS62 KKEY 121913 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 313 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 213 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 A few more hours of showers and occasional thunderstorms are on deck for this evening, but the intensity of the activity has already started to diminish and will continue to do so into tonight. Once the last few showers taper off overnight, weather will remain quiet into the early morning hours tomorrow with surface winds of 5 to 10 mph out of the northeast to east. Over the weekend, a broadening ridge over the Atlantic will lift northward and will allow breezes to resume a more easterly direction and increase modestly. Considering the combination of some speed convergence and pushes of moisture from the east, PoPs will remain elevated during the daytime hours this weekend, coming down just a little bit during the overnight hours. Temperatures during the day will sit in the lower 90s and dew points will reach the upper 70s, and this will result in heat indices approaching the mid 100s. Previous discussions have mentioned the seasonal tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT), and guidance suggests that we will feel its influence again sometime early next week. This will continue to drive at least a couple of pushes of moisture into the forecast area, and the likely unstable atmosphere warrants nonzero PoPs through the rest of the forecast period. FOr the sake of continuity, opted to keep the inherited 40 percent PoPs for Monday through Wednesday, and 30 percent PoPs thereafter. && .MARINE... Issued at 213 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will continue to drive variable wind directions into tonight, but once this activity diminishes, gentle to light breezes will assume a northeasterly to easterly direction. Over the weekend, breezes will increase modestly as the ridge lifts northward into Central Florida, but will begin to slacken early next week as the ridge pulls back some into the Atlantic. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 213 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the TAF period. However, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the vicinity of the island chain will progress towards the terminals, especially EYW. Interactions with other boundaries warrants inclusion of VCSH in the TAFs for the next several hours, with possible TEMPOs to handle any expected sub-VFR conditions. Variable winds 6 to 8 knots will gradually become easterly at near 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 81 90 82 90 / 30 40 30 40 Marathon 81 91 82 91 / 30 50 30 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest