Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
956 FXUS62 KKEY 141904 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 304 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Relatively quiet weather from earlier today will give way to an increase in showers and thunderstorms this evening as another push of moisture is tracking from east to west into the forecast area. KBYX radar has already detected some activity over our coastal and offshore waters, and this activity will both continue into tonight and spread in areal coverage across our zones. The spotty nature of this activity makes it difficult to say who has the best chance at seeing some rain tonight, but the overall theme of an active night stands. Even after showers diminish overnight, the atmosphere should still be pretty wet as the easterly-tracking moisture surge doesn`t exit the area until sometime Tuesday night or Wednesday. PoPs have been kept elevated until then to account for the favorable environment for showers and thunderstorms. This also means that dewpoints will remain elevated, and heat indices may approach advisory criteria again tomorrow and/or Tuesday. Holding off on any issuance due to the fact that we currently have on in effect for today. Guidance currently suggests a sliver of relatively drier air will move in Wednesday as some Saharan dust may mix back in to our skies, but what happens after that is still difficult to say as models struggle to depict if the dust will keep rain chances minimal, or if things can mix out relatively quickly and make way for another surge of moisture. All of this to say that the details of the forecast are still fuzzy, an on-and-off pattern of activity will be on deck at least for the next few days. && .MARINE... Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, gentle to occasionally moderate breezes out of the east to southeast will continue through Thursday as ridging will remain in place across the forecast area. Multiple pushes of moisture will lead to slightly elevated rain and thunder chances through at least Tuesday before some drier air sneaks in during the midweek. Just how much moisture returns at the end of the week is still in question, but a shift in the weather pattern may lead to an increase in breezes. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 VFR conditions prevail at EYW and MTH through the 15/18Z TAF period, though cloud and shower coverage will increase tomorrow morning. Hi- res models do not agree on a specific time showers will move across the island terminal, thus TEMPOs were left out of the TAFs. Near- surface winds will remain easterly near 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2023, the daily record high temperature of 98F was recorded in Marathon. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 81 89 81 89 / 50 50 40 40 Marathon 80 91 80 91 / 50 50 40 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest