Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
472 FXUS62 KKEY 170248 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1048 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1045 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 It`s a somewhat quiet and clear start to the night across the island chain this evening. These conditions are unsurprising as a swath of drier air has settled across the Florida Keys from the east, suppressing most convective development in the nearshore waters of the island chain. However, this did not stop pulse showers east of the island chain from popping up and down all afternoon. There was also an overachieving thunderstorm located in the middle of said dry air in the far eastern Straits of Florida that warranted the issuance of a Special Marine Warning. Said storm quickly dissipated after reaching its peak. These outliers plus current temperatures in the middle 80s along our land areas hint that our tropical summer airmass is still around despite drier air aloft. Ridging across the Florida Peninsula will continue to promote moderate east to southeast winds across our CWA. The drier air aloft will trudge west with this steering flow, but keep the island chain relatively rain free in the short term. The major exception to the forecast could be the Upper Keys tomorrow afternoon with the development of convection on mainland Florida. Regardless, slight chance PoPs are held overall through tomorrow. As with the last few days, persisting high temperatures and dewpoints values will leave us on the cusp of Heat Advisory conditions in the warmest parts of the daytime hours. While its uncertain whether said product will be needed at this time, be sure to be aware of and prepare for the summer heat if going outside. && .MARINE... Issued at 1045 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, Atlantic ridging will remain across the Florida Peninsula through the duration of the forecast. This will result in gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes across Keys waters. Winds will tend to surge in the evening and night hours and lull during the day. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH tonight into tomorrow morning. A swath of dry air over the island chain will suppress shower development near both terminals overnight. While rain chances increase slightly tomorrow, they remain below normal for this time of year. Near surface winds will be out of the east to southeast at near 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 83 90 83 90 / 10 20 30 30 Marathon 83 91 82 91 / 10 20 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest