275
FXUS62 KKEY 181447
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1047 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1045 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

This morning we had a spackling of showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the region. The morning sounding showed a
PWat of just over 2 inches. This was corroborated with MIMIC
satellite derived Total Precipitable Water imagery. Speaking of
satellite derived TPW, behind this plume of moisture is relatively
drier air surging in from the east. Looking at visible satellite
the cu definitely looks more shallow and tame compared to what
went through our neck of the woods this morning. Otherwise,
ridging remains in place that east to southeast winds will persist
though we will enter a lull going into the afternoon and winds
will slacken as a result. In addition, we will continue to flirt
with near Heat Advisory conditions once again so keep the water
handy and seek shade as often as possible.

Made minor changes to the going forecast, specifically to PoPs.
Given the aforementioned dry air moving in from the east, combined
with radar and satellite trends, decided to nudge down PoPs for
the remainder of the day. Our best chance for rain looks to have
already occurred. Otherwise, no changes made to the going
forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1045 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Atlantic ridging will remain across the Florida
Peninsula through the forecast. This will result in gentle to
moderate east to southeasterly breezes across Keys waters, peaking
in the evening and night hours and lulling during the day. Winds
are expected to trend upwards this weekend as the ridge lifts
northward into North Florida and the southeastern United States.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through the
overnight hours. Surface winds will remain from the east to
southeast near 10 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...

On this date in Keys Weather History, the daily record warm low
temperature of 87F was recorded. This is also tied for the warmest
low temperature ever recorded for July for the Key West area.
Temperatures records for Key West date back to 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV
Data Acquisition.....MJV

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