420
FXUS62 KKEY 061501
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1101 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024
GOES-16 split window imagery suggests the ribbon of Saharan dust
that was leading to convective shutdown yesterday has largely
propagated away from the Florida Keys and the adjacent nearshore
and offshore coastal waters. The tropospheric moisture profile
sampled from the 12z sounding at KEY is consistent with this
analysis, with general moistening from the surface up to the 500
mb isobaric surface. It should thus come as no surprise that
isolated showers and rare thunderstorms are dotting the coastal
waters, mainly north of the Florida Keys island chain. Outside of
this activity, skies are mostly sunny to partly cloudy, with
temperatures at island communities in the upper 80s. With dew
points in the upper 70s, heat indices are in the lower 100s.

For this afternoon, weak steering flow coupled with no large-scale
forcing for ascent will leave any shower or thunderstorm activity
limited to mesoscale processes, including boundary interactions
and possible island cumulus cloud line formation. Strangely, given
this setup, all available statistical MOS guidance is quite
bullish with measurable rain chances. Meteorological reasoning is
consistent with the inherited low-end chance levels for island
communities receiving rainfall, and thus have elected to maintain
the forecast status quo. No changes proposed at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, light to
gentle east to southeast breezes will continue through tonight, as
an axis of high pressure settles south of the Florida Keys
coastal waters. Breezes will veer to the southeast and south on
Sunday, before backing to the east and briefly freshening for
Monday and Tuesday. Breezes will once again slacken by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow at both EYW and MTH.
Shower activity has remained north of the island chain this morning,
but a few isolated showers near the terminals are not out of the
question. Confidence in the exact timing of any shower development
is low, so have no included VCSH as of now. Surface winds will be
out of the southeast to south near 5 knots today, then will become
more east to southeast later in the TAF period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 2021, both the daily record cold high temperature of
83F and the daily record rainfall of 3.67" were recorded in Key
West. Temperature records date back to 1872 and rainfall records
date back to 1871.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  82  90  82  91 /  20  40  40  20
Marathon  82  89  82  90 /  20  40  40  20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...BT
Aviation/Nowcasts....NB
Data Acquisition.....BT/NB

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