Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
073 FXUS62 KKEY 041415 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1015 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1013 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Deep layer ridging persists over the southeastern United States for the holiday. What would typically be a day of light to gentle breezes across the Florida Keys waters is instead a sequence of gentle to moderate breezes due to Hurricane Beryl`s transit across the Caribbean and the associated tighter pressure gradient across the Florida Straits. Showers may still form along weak wind boundaries, but the 12Z sounding sampled a few weak inversions below 800 mb that will limit coverage to isolated conditions. The precipitable water value was sampled at 2.00 inches, above the 75th percentile, but drier layers above 700 mb will limit the showers that due form. Layers of high- altitude debris clouds from Hurricane Beryl will occasionally increase cloud cover above mostly sunny thresholds. Finally, temperatures are in the upper 80s with dew points near 80 with highs on track to near 90F. Today, winds will peak as moderate breezes across the Straits around noon as Hurricane Beryl makes its closest approach to the Keys, remaining south of Cuba. Expect a gradual slackening of winds across Keys waters overnight as Beryl moves west. The deep layer ridge will continue to inhibit showers while keeping skies mostly cloud-free, except for periodic cirrus outflow from the hurricane. While the environment is suppressed, the high dew points and precipitable water mean even shallow showers could result in moderate rainfall. Overall, no changes made to the inherited short-term forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1013 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Hurricane Beryl will continue its trek across the Caribbean Sea well to our south, but the increased pressure gradient will allow for a short period of moderate breezes through this afternoon and evening. These breezes will slacken tomorrow as Beryl moves farther away, and high pressure will lead to gentle east to southeasterly breezes veering to the southeast and south through the end of the week and into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1013 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH through the TAF period, Isolated showers may move across both terminals today, however, confidence in exact timing is low so have left out VCSH. Surface winds will east at 8 to 14 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1947, the daily record low temperature of 71F and the daily record rainfall of 6.07" were both recorded in Key West. Rainfall record date back to 1871 and temperature records date back to 1872. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....NB Data Acquisition.....NB Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest