645
FXUS62 KKEY 050910
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
510 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
High clouds are stretching across the forecast area this morning,
but the lack of meteorological returns on radar means everyone
will be waking up to a dry morning along the Keys. High pressure
that is enveloping the region will prevent any large scale ascent,
and we are still opting to keep PoPs at 20% as we head into the
weekend since we can`t rule out smaller scale ascent such as
converging breezes or boundaries. The combination of high
temperatures near 90F and dew points in the upper 70s will lead to
heat indices climbing into the low 100s during the afternoon, and
this looks to be the case for the next few days since the high
pressure doesn`t seem to be going anywhere just yet.

There is still some uncertainty as to how the pattern changes over
the first half of next week. Guidance continues to show back to
back tropical waves approaching Florida, which would bring a surge
of moisture and provide ascent to trigger showers and
thunderstorms. The finer details such as areal coverage, rainfall
totals, wind speeds, etc still have much uncertainty behind them
due to model disagreement. The overall message of a possibly wet
first half of the week is what we will continue to advertise. Once
guidance gets a better handle on the evolution of the pattern,
then we will be able to hone in on what kind of impacts, if any,
we could see from the uptick in active weather.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
Light to gentle east to southeast breezes will
continue into the weekend as high pressure settles in over the
area. These gentle breezes will nudge to the southeast and south
on Sunday before returning back to a more easterly direction and
become gentle to moderate on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through Friday evening at the EYW and
MTH terminals. Only isolated showers at most are expected during the
day, however more substantial convection may move SSW from the
Everglades and approach the terminals during the evening. Confidence
in this scenario is too low to mention in the TAFs at this time.
Surface winds will remain from the E to SE at 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  91  83  90  83 /  20  20  20  20
Marathon  90  82  90  83 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...DP
Aviation/Nowcasts....Jacobson
Data Acquisition.....Jacobson

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