Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
397 FXUS62 KKEY 051824 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 224 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Very warm conditions are ongoing across the Florida Keys this afternoon. Heat indices in most island communities have reached just under Heat Advisory criteria, and with a slight decrease in winds over the past few hours, the air now feels even more stagnant. CIMSS MIMIC TPW is highlighting a large swath of drier air across our area that is on the far northeastern periphery of Tropical Storm Beryl, which is currently located on the Yucatan Peninsula. The combination of this dry air and large-scale subsidence over our area has nixed all shower development so far today, with all of the Florida Keys remaining rain-free. GOES visible is detecting some cloudy streamers moving off the island chain into the Gulf, as well as some land breeze boundaries traversing through our waters, otherwise skies are mostly clear. Tropical Storm Beryl will skirt to the northwest towards the south Texas coast. Meanwhile, ridging in the western North Atlantic will remain in place.The Keys will find themselves caught in between these features and in a very weak pressure field through at least the first half of the weekend. Drier air will continue to push through the region which will keep rain chances and cloud cover muted through Saturday night. The best chance the Keys will see in regards to rainfall will be from some of the Mainland drifting southward towards the Upper Keys. The main concern over the next few days will be the heat. Heat indices will continue to flirt with Heat Advisory criteria, so we will continue to monitor this and assess the need for an Advisory in later forecast cycles. A tropical wave south of the Keys will move westward through the Caribbean and drag deep tropical moisture across our area Sunday and Sunday night. Decided to nudge Sunday night rain chances up to 40% to match Sunday as this moisture pushes through. This will be one of the better shots at seeing measurable rainfall through the extended forecast. In previous model runs, a healthy TUTT cell moved across the area by early to mid week next week, however, this feature has become somewhat unimpressive, so have stuck with near normal rain chances Monday through Friday. We will return to a more normal summertime regime during these forecast periods. Ridging will remain the dominant feature, and the easterly steering flow will occasionally pump in slugs of enhanced moisture. Rain chances of 20-30% seemed appropriate for now. Temperatures will peak in the lower 90s and drop into the lower to mid 80s overnight each day. && .MARINE... Issued at 224 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, light to gentle east to southeast breezes will continue through the first part of the weekend as high pressure settles in over the area. These gentle breezes will veer to the southeast and south on Sunday before backing to the east and returning to gentle to moderate on Monday and Tuesday. Slackening breezes are expected again by Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 224 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through 18z Saturday afternoon, with low rain and thunder chances. Near-surface winds will remain out of the east to southeast at 6 to 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... In 2021, Tropical Storm Elsa moved roughly 55 miles west of Key West late July 5th through early afternoon July 6th, with the center of the storm passing in between Key West and the Dry Tortugas. It produced maximum sustained winds of 52 mph at Key West international Airport and 48 knots at Smith Shoal Light, with wind gusts to 70 mph and 58 knots, respectively. Rainfall totals were the highest in Key West as well with Key West International Airport measuring 4.49 inches, the NWS Key West office measuring 6.62 inches, with a maximum rainfall amount of 7.54 inches on Catherine Street in Key West. No significant impacts were noted from Tropical Storm Elsa with the exception of significant street flooding of 6 to 10 inches in depth in Old Town and Midtown Key West as strong rain bands with high rainfall rates moved across the island. Otherwise, most damage was confined to widely- separated downed tree limbs from Key West to the Saddlebunch Keys due to nearly 13 hours of Tropical-Storm-Force gusts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 91 82 91 / 10 20 20 40 Marathon 82 91 82 91 / 20 30 20 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...NB Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest