706
FXUS63 KJKL 251319
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston WV
919 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat will be in place for the area this week. Heat indices
  peaking in the 100 to 105 degree range are forecast for many
  locations through Saturday.

- Diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances gradually increase
  through the end of the week and weekend before peaking early
  next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 919 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2025

There are no major changes with the mid-morning update. It will be
another hot and humid day after starting with what will likely be
record or at least record-threatening high minimum temperatures
at our climate sites providing little in the way of overnight
relief from the conditions.

Will continue to advertise for the potential for an isolated
shower or storm over primarily southeastern Kentucky, though in
reality it is possible any location could see such activity. Any
stronger storm will be capable of producing gusty winds and small
hail.


UPDATE Issued at 1210 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones and NPW.

UPDATE Issued at 740 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025

23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure and upper ridging still in
control of the weather over eastern Kentucky. This is keeping the
winds light and skies mostly clear with any convection staying
across the border near Black Mountain. Currently temperatures are
running in the mid to upper 80s. Meanwhile, dewpoints are
generally in the mid to upper 70s. Have updated the forecast
mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
with a touch up to the PoPs and Wx grids through the night. These
minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along
with a freshening of the zones and HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 223 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025

An oppressive heat dome continues to reside over the area with not
much in the way of relief in the near term. Given high confidence
in heat indices in the 100 to 107 degree range once again, the
Heat Advisory has been extended through Wednesday.

An isolated shower or storm (or two) will be possible late this
afternoon into the mid-evening period, but chances were too low to
include in the official forecast for any one location at this
time.

The center of the heat dome will retreat a bit east Wednesday,
allowing for some south to southeast push of a bit better
moisture, which may be sufficient to help produce a few showers
and storms, especially over far eastern and southeastern Kentucky.
If storms are able to develop, there will be the potential for one
or more storms to be on the strong side with the potential for
damaging winds.

Overnight lows will continue to threat record high minimum
temperatures for the next couple of nights at the official climate
stations of JKL and LOZ, with overall temperatures ranging from
the upper 60s to mid-70s across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025

The upper-level high/ridge over the area will gradually weaken
through the end of the week, which will allow for increased
chances of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. By
early next week, the upper ridge will weaken sufficiently and
retreat from the region to allow for impinging mid-level
westerlies across the Ohio Valley from the north, with a weak
upper level low/trough moving slowly east across the area
providing synoptic lift to end the long-term period.

Temperatures, both for highs and lows, will gradually lower back
toward normal as daily PoPs increase late this week into early
next week. However, with the hot conditions and high humidity,
heat indices will also only gradually lower with time, lowering
from the 100 to 105 range Thursday to more in the 95 to 103 range
Friday, and remaining in/near that range into the weekend. The
best chances for diurnal showers and storms will be each afternoon
and evening, with valley river fog developing late each night
with any partial clearing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2025

High pressure and ridging aloft will remain over the region
through the TAF period resulting in light and variable winds. VFR
conditions will likely hold across the area with the exception of
late night/early morning fog in the valleys which may affect the
terminals for a time early this morning.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...Titus