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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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397 FXUS63 KJKL 111920 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 320 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hotter conditions make a comeback as we move into the weekend and for next week. - The next significant chance of rain will hold off until the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 320 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2024 Current surface analysis has surface high pressure situated over the much of the eastern CONUS. The remnants of Beryl is exiting off the northeastern coast and a weak surface low is tracking across the Central Plains with a wavering frontal boundary extending into the Ohio Valley. Locally, high pressure is keeping the CWA warm and dry with a widespread field of fair weather cumulus clouds. Aloft, troughing is situated over the Great Lakes with the CWA under the regime of the upslope side of the trough. Through the afternoon into Friday, the trough will pivot through the area. At the surface, high pressure will remain in place but a few showers and storms may try to develop this afternoon along the aforementioned frontal boundary but those PoP chances will largely remain confined to areas west of the CWA. Clouds will decrease overnight and a decent ridge- valley split will set up tonight; as well as, areas of patchy dense valley fog. Friday brings much of the same weather as surface high pressure remains in place. The upper-level trough will pivot through the area but once again, not expecting much in the way of PoPs. CAMs try to bring a few isolated showers or storms to the I-75 corridor but chances are less than 15% in those areas. Similar to Thursday night, a mostly clear night is expected again Friday into Saturday where a ridge-valley split sets up and valley fog will develop and persist through early Saturday morning. Overall, the period will be dry with passing clouds. Highs are forecast to be in the mid to upper-80s today before climbing into low 90s for Friday. Overnight lows will remain mild across the area too, as lows tonight will drop into the low to mid-60s and mid to upper-60s for Friday night. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 320 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2024 The first several days in the extended should be hot and mostly dry, as high pressure settles over portions of the southeastern and southern CONUS. We might see a few showers and storms Sunday afternoon north of Highway 80, and again Monday evening, as a couple of weak disturbances pass by to our north. Our next good chance will likely not arrive until late Tuesday, as a more substantial system moves across southern Canada, and drags a cold front through the Great Lakes and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. It appears that the front will get hung near or over our area by Wednesday, keeping rain chances in the forecast through near the end of the week. Weak impulses moving along the sluggish boundary will be triggers for showers and storms as well. As for temperatures, it looks like we will see a return to hot and muggy conditions in the extended. The latest run of the NBM was way too hot for Monday and Tuesday, and initially had highs on those two days maxing out in the mid to upper 90s, which would be incredibly difficult to achieve in our area. Even with dewpoints expected to rise into the upper and lower 70s, we should still see daily highs mainly in the lower 90s, with a few locations perhaps reaching the mid 90s. We should see a nice cool down at the end of the period, as the cold front drifts to our south and persistent rain and clouds are in place. Highs next Thursday should only be in the low to mid 80s. As far as weather concerns go, we will keep an eye on just hot and humid conditions become the first few days next week. If any concerns arise with regards to the heat, we will keep everyone informed. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2024 High pressure will keep TAFs mostly VFR through the period. However, mid-level moisture is favoring a deck of mid-level clouds to develop across the area. This mid-level deck will persist into the late evening before dissipating. Overnight, mostly clear skies will allow for fog to develop in the fog prone areas, mainly KLOZ and KSME bringing those terminals to MVFR between 06Z and 12Z. Fog will burn off after 12/Friday. Winds will remain light and variable through the duration of the TAF period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VORST LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...VORST