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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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058 FXUS63 KJKL 120527 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 127 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hotter conditions make a comeback as we move into the weekend and for next week. - The next significant chance of rain will hold off until the middle of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1140 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2024 A weak mid-level wave is pushing across the Ohio Valley. This continues to lead to a few showers right along our CWA border mainly in Rockcastle and Pulaski counties. Did keep this for a few more hours in these areas, but these are expected to dissipate later this evening into the overnight. The NBM PPI continues to be of little help in the situation and favored some of the other short term models and blends for adding these PoPs in longer. Outside this very minor updates needed for the latest obs and trends. UPDATE Issued at 819 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2024 A few rain showers have developed right along our CWA border near Pulaski and Rockcastle counties. Given this opted to add in around 15 to 20 percent chance of rain in these locations. Outside of that no big changes needed. UPDATE Issued at 558 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2024 The surface analysis shows high pressure continues to work into the Great Lakes this afternoon. In the mid-levels, a shortwave trough is pushing across portions of the Ohio Valley. This is aiding in sparking off a few showers and thunderstorms to the northwest of eastern Kentucky. Most of the CAMs have this activity decreasing through the evening, but the HRRR has shown some signs this could maintain and get closer to the area late this evening. Right now leaning toward dry weather through the evening, but did opt to increase cloud cover given the latest trends on Satellite. Outside this overall minor updates were made to the forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 320 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2024 Current surface analysis has surface high pressure situated over the much of the eastern CONUS. The remnants of Beryl is exiting off the northeastern coast and a weak surface low is tracking across the Central Plains with a wavering frontal boundary extending into the Ohio Valley. Locally, high pressure is keeping the CWA warm and dry with a widespread field of fair weather cumulus clouds. Aloft, troughing is situated over the Great Lakes with the CWA under the regime of the upslope side of the trough. Through the afternoon into Friday, the trough will pivot through the area. At the surface, high pressure will remain in place but a few showers and storms may try to develop this afternoon along the aforementioned frontal boundary but those PoP chances will largely remain confined to areas west of the CWA. Clouds will decrease overnight and a decent ridge- valley split will set up tonight; as well as, areas of patchy dense valley fog. Friday brings much of the same weather as surface high pressure remains in place. The upper-level trough will pivot through the area but once again, not expecting much in the way of PoPs. CAMs try to bring a few isolated showers or storms to the I-75 corridor but chances are less than 15% in those areas. Similar to Thursday night, a mostly clear night is expected again Friday into Saturday where a ridge-valley split sets up and valley fog will develop and persist through early Saturday morning. Overall, the period will be dry with passing clouds. Highs are forecast to be in the mid to upper-80s today before climbing into low 90s for Friday. Overnight lows will remain mild across the area too, as lows tonight will drop into the low to mid-60s and mid to upper-60s for Friday night. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 320 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2024 The first several days in the extended should be hot and mostly dry, as high pressure settles over portions of the southeastern and southern CONUS. We might see a few showers and storms Sunday afternoon north of Highway 80, and again Monday evening, as a couple of weak disturbances pass by to our north. Our next good chance will likely not arrive until late Tuesday, as a more substantial system moves across southern Canada, and drags a cold front through the Great Lakes and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. It appears that the front will get hung near or over our area by Wednesday, keeping rain chances in the forecast through near the end of the week. Weak impulses moving along the sluggish boundary will be triggers for showers and storms as well. As for temperatures, it looks like we will see a return to hot and muggy conditions in the extended. The latest run of the NBM was way too hot for Monday and Tuesday, and initially had highs on those two days maxing out in the mid to upper 90s, which would be incredibly difficult to achieve in our area. Even with dewpoints expected to rise into the upper and lower 70s, we should still see daily highs mainly in the lower 90s, with a few locations perhaps reaching the mid 90s. We should see a nice cool down at the end of the period, as the cold front drifts to our south and persistent rain and clouds are in place. Highs next Thursday should only be in the low to mid 80s. As far as weather concerns go, we will keep an eye on just hot and humid conditions become the first few days next week. If any concerns arise with regards to the heat, we will keep everyone informed. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT FRI JUL 12 2024 The period will remain mostly VFR across eastern Kentucky. Will maintain a continuity forecast with just MVFR viz in fog mentioned at SME, but otherwise kept other sites VFR for now. This fog is expected to dissipate around 12Z and VFR will return area wide for the remainder of the period. Expect another day of shallow cumulus development generally with cloud bases once again in the 5 kft to 6 kft range. Winds will remain light and variable for the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...VORST LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...CMC