Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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715 FXUS63 KJKL 141035 CCA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED National Weather Service Jackson KY 635 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot conditions continue into the middle of this week, with increasing humidity Monday through Wednesday contributing to maximum heat indices around 100 degrees. - The next significant chance of rain will arrive mid-week with the approach of a cold front producing showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 413 AM EDT SUN JUL 14 2024 We continue in a pattern with weakly cyclonic flow aloft and weakly anticyclonic flow in the lower levels, with little in the way of significant warm moist advection into the eastern Kentucky. This leaves eastern Kentucky mostly hot and dry through Monday, with the best chance at any precipitation, though modest at best, coming this afternoon into the early evening as a disturbance moving east across the Midwest may allow for an upstream MCS to push into the northern half of the forecast area from the northwest. This activity would almost assuredly be weakening and then dissipating as it moves into the area, if it even makes it this far. Monday appears dry though if a shower or thunderstorm were to occur in the late afternoon it would most likely be over the high terrain near or along the TN and VA borders. Fog development tonight beyond the typical river valleys would likely be dependent on whether shower and thunderstorm activity reaches the area this afternoon into early evening. Highs today will reach the lower to mid 90s this afternoon, but rise into the mid-90s with a couple of upper-90s sprinkled in Monday. With a slight rise in humidity Monday, heat indices will approach or reach 100 degrees. Lows tonight will be mild with lows around 70 degrees, with mid to upper 60s in the typically cooler sheltered valleys. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 523 AM EDT SUN JUL 14 2024 The 14/00z model suite upper level analysis beginning Monday evening shows ridging extending from the Atlantic into the far Southeast US with some relative troughiness over the Lower Mississippi Valley before heights climb again toward an ~595 dam high over the Four Corners. Well to the north an ~556 dam low is embedded in a digging trough dropping out of northern Manitoba toward the Upper Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure centered of the open Atlantic extends westward into the Southeast CONUS. Meanwhile, an ~1000 mb surface low is passing over Lake Superior. A cold front trails southwest from this low back to near Kansas City then west and northwest to along the eastern foothills of the Northern Rockies. Moisture levels will continue to rise across the Ohio Valley on Monday night and Tuesday as southwesterly return flow continues to pull in higher humidity. Isolated deep convection is possible by the afternoon hours on Tuesday, but the lack of a forcing mechanism favors initiation mainly occurring over higher terrain near the Virginia border. Given increasingly high instability and plenty of mid-level dry air but only weak shear, any storms on Tuesday could pose a localized strong to damaging wind threat as they collapse. The more widespread rain threat doesn`t come until late Tuesday night and Wednesday when more numerous showers and possible thunderstorms impact eastern Kentucky just ahead of and along the cold front. Mid-level winds increase slightly on Wednesday leading to slightly better shear ahead of the front`s parent upper level trough, perhaps supporting semi-organized multicellular storm structures. Again though, any strong to severe wind threat appears isolated. After PoPs peak in the 70 to 90% range on Wednesday afternoon ahead of the cold front, rain chances will diminish later in the evening and Wednesday night as the front presses through eastern Kentucky. The boundary eventually hangs up just south and east of our region and wavers right through the upcoming weekend as upper level troughing prevails over the Ohio Valley. Diurnal heating and disturbances passing aloft will act as a trigger for daily shower and thunderstorm threat through Saturday with the highest chances in counties adjacent to Virginia and nearest to the wavering frontal boundary. Aside from the threat for rain, the air mass behind our mid-week cold front will be noticeably cooler than what has been seen lately. Prefrontal high temperatures on Tuesday are expected to reach the middle 90s at most locations with heat indices peaking within a few degrees of 100F. That kind of heat will just be a memory come Thursday when eastern Kentucky is forecast to only see highs in the mid 70s to around 80. The cooler air also looks as if it will be sticking around as highs only slowly moderate into the lower to middle 80s by Saturday. Nighttime low temperatures will also go from the muggy upper 60s to mid 70s on Monday and Tuesday nights to the comfortable upper 50s to mid 60s on Thursday and Friday nights. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SUN JUL 14 2024 VFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites. There is a concern for some fog toward dawn, but with still significant dew point depressions at all but SME decided to just carry a TEMPO group for 6SM, and then make amendments as/if needed. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies are on tap for much of the day Sunday, with a few mid-level afternoon CU. Light and variable winds will also persist through the duration of the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...GEERTSON AVIATION...CMC