Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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031 FXUS63 KJKL 081737 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 137 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot weather will be in place today and Tuesday with afternoon heat indices approaching 100 degrees in a few locations. - The remnants of Beryl will track to our northwest Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity. A few of the storms Tuesday afternoon and evening could be strong with damaging wind gusts the main threat - though a tornado cannot be ruled out. - More seasonable temperatures follow for Thursday, before daily highs return back to the lower 90s by the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 137 PM EDT MON JUL 8 2024 The WSR-88D radar is picking up on a few showers developing in Bell County this afternoon and this was well placed in the forecast grids. Overall these have been very weak and localized. Not expected much shower or thunderstorm activity outside the areas nearer the Virginia and Tennessee borders this afternoon. Outside this only minor changes to the add in the latest obs and trends. UPDATE Issued at 1035 AM EDT MON JUL 8 2024 This morning we have a few mainly mid- and high level clouds moving into the area from the southwest. Outside this, sunny skies and summer like heat are the stories of the day. No big changes needed for this update. UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT MON JUL 8 2024 No substantial change to the forecast - just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 500 AM EDT MON JUL 8 2024 08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure weakening over the area as the core of it moves further off to the northeast. This has allowed more clouds to work into this part of the state early this morning. The added clouds are likely hindering the fog development for all but the deeper valleys and also slowing the temperature drop. The high pressure has also been keeping the winds light to calm through the night. Currently temperatures are varying from the low 70s on the ridges to the mid 60s in many of the sheltered valley spots. Meanwhile, dewpoints are running higher than last night at this time - generally in the mid to upper 60s. Despite the addition of Beryl into the pattern, the models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in pretty good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict 5h ridging over the Southeast holding on for one more day keeping heights elevated over eastern Kentucky into Tuesday morning. About that time, though, the upper levels of Beryl will start to be absorbed into the westerlies and lift north through the lower Mississippi Valley on its way to the western portion of the Ohio Valley by Tuesday evening. As it approaches Kentucky, height falls will occur throughout the state, more energy start to arrive at mid levels, and the winds aloft will become more favorable for organized storms. Given the still small model spread have again favored the NBM as the starting point for the forecast grids - along with some enhancement from the latest CAMs consensus. Sensible weather features a couple of hot and increasingly humid days on tap. Just a few locations will be lucky enough to see some cooling and refreshing convection this afternoon - mainly places closer to the Tennessee and Virginia border. There should still be enough thin patches in the clouds to allow for a small ridge to valley temperature difference tonight and patchy river valley fog formation. Tuesday will continue the uncomfortable heat with more locations seeing a shot of convection in the afternoon on account of the approach of Beryl`s remains as it lifts into Illinois. Good turning of winds with height and their overall strength will favor stronger and potentially organized storms for much of the area into the evening, Tuesday. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat - conditional on storm development - but also a tornado or two cannot be ruled out due to that wind field. The main changes to the NBM starting point consisted of adjusting the PoPs for spatial and temporal consensus from the CAMs, on Tuesday especially. The NBM temperatures were only slightly tweaked tonight for small terrain details. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 435 AM EDT MON JUL 8 2024 Ridging will be aligned across the West as well from the western Atlantic through the southeastern CONUS the middle of next week. In between these two ridges, the remnants of Beryl will get absorbed into a positively tilted trough positioned from the Great Lakes region through the southern Plains, over the central CONUS. The trough will gradually weaken through the weekend, as 500 mb heights increase with time over the southern half of the CONUS, with hot temperatures returning across the Tennessee and Ohio valleys. Overall, there has been a quicker progression as well as a more southeast shift to the track of the remnants of Beryl compared to last night. Still, this mainly results in an uptick in PoPs Tuesday night into Wednesday; however, besides some progressive isolated heavy rainers, more focused QPF remains to our northwest. PoPs peak in the likely (60-70%) range on Wednesday, as the core of the tropical remnants pass by to our northwest, along with an associated surface cold front that will move through the Commonwealth. Diurnally-driven smaller PoP chances hang on through the rest of the period; however, these generally become more confined to southeastern Kentucky, as the surface front and associated better moisture stalls over the Appalachians. Humid conditions will temporarily retreat by Thursday, with more seasonable highs in the mid 80s. Temperatures will then trend hotter into next weekend, with highs returning to lower 90s, along with dew points gradually creeping up towards the 70 degree mark by the end of the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT MON JUL 8 2024 We will see VFR conditions for most locations for the period. There are some showers and eventually the potential for a few thunderstorms mainly near the Tennessee and Virginia border. These are not expected to affected the TAF sites at this time. There is the potential for low clouds and fog to develop mainly in the river valleys late tonight, and there is the outside chance this could drift into a TAF site. Given short term guidance is not as bold with this idea will leave out of the TAF sites for now. The winds will be light and variable generally less than 5 knots out of the south and southeast. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...DJ