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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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885 FXUS63 KJKL 161116 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 716 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid weather will bring heat index values ranging from the upper 90s to the lower 100s to many locations Tuesday. - Showers and thunderstorms will impact the region late this afternoon through early next week. - Thunderstorms this afternoon into the overnight will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts. There is also the risk for excessive rainfall through Wednesday from potentially repeat rounds of showers and thunderstorms, despite antecedent abnormally dry conditions for many areas. - A welcomed relief from the heat follows the cold front for Thursday through this weekend, with temperatures averaging near normal to below normal Thursday into early next week. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 331 AM EDT TUE JUL 16 2024 Eastern Kentucky will see an increasingly active weather pattern through Wednesday afternoon as the area comes under the influence of increasing cyclonic flow aloft and a cold front approaches from the northwest. A large MCS continues to weaken upstream over the Midwest as it approaches the area. Latest trends suggest little to no rain reaching the area this morning, with some remnant outflow winds possibly impacting areas especially north of Interstate 64. But trends will need to be monitored as what is left of the MCS approaches the area. The remnant debris clouds left from the MCS will move over the area this morning. This may prevent high temperatures today from reaching their full potential this afternoon. The NBM has trended downward a degree or two compared to 24 hours ago, but with lower to mid-90s still expected. Humidity will also increase today as warm advection continues to push moisture into the region. With the question mark of cloud cover today and uncertainty with how quickly dew points rise today, will cover the heat impacts with a Special Weather Statement as we have been doing. As for showers and thunderstorms, expect generally low chances until late this afternoon into the evening as models depict moisture advection fairly parallel with the mid- and upper-level winds entering northern parts of the CWA by this evening. This increases the chances of showers and thunderstorm activity training across parts of the area, especially toward the Interstate 64 corridor, which is why the Weather Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. However, given antecedent abnormally dry conditions it will take more rain than usual to cause any significant flooding issues. Thus, have decided to withhold any issuance of a Flood Watch at this time. As disturbances move west to east across the area the approaching cold front and upper level trough will gradually push shower and thunderstorm activity south across the CWA through Wednesday. Widespread categorical PoPs cover the area Wednesday during the daytime period, which will bring badly needed rainfall for many areas, though again will need to watch for the potential for excessive rainfall with a Slight Risk continuing over eastern parts of the forecast area. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 418 AM EDT TUE JUL 16 2024 The extended period will start off quite active, as a cold front moves through the region. The front will make a strong push out of the Ohio Valley and across Kentucky Wednesday night and Thursday. As the front pushes southeast, it will be slowed greatly, due to persistent southerly flow around the western edge of the subtropical high, which will be parked off the southeastern CONUS throughout the period. The front should make it out of our area early Thursday evening. After that, we should see a brief window of dry weather Thursday night into early Friday morning, as the front meanders about to our south. However, as the subtropical high expands back westward, the front will make a push to the northwest. By Friday afternoon, we will see isolated to scattered showers and storms moving back into our southeastern counties, as impulses of low pressure move along the incoming front. The rain will become more widespread on Saturday, as a stronger wave of low pressure moves from west to east along the stalled front, and southerly flow around the off shore ridge pushes ample moisture into the Tennessee Valleys. This pattern will repeat itself through the weekend and into the first of the new work, as multiple waves of low pressures move by just to our south, and warm and moist air remains in place. Temperatures during the extended will be much nicer than what we`ve experienced over the past week or so, as much cooler air will finally makes its way into the area behind the aforementioned cold front. While warm and humid air will still be in place south and southeast of the front, with clouds and precip persisting in those regions, northerly flow will invade the area behind the front. The convergence of the cooler northerly flow with the much warmer and moist southerly flow south of the front, will be the impetus for precipitation. Winds will eventually shift back to a more predominantly southerly or southeasterly flow pattern over weekend and into the first of next week, allowing temperatures to warm to closer to normal values in the low to mid 80s. This will be in contrast to the upper 70s and lower 80s we are expecting Thursday and Friday. We will monitor the potential for locally heavy rainfall, especially Wednesday night and Thursday, as the cold front moves slowly through the region. This will be the primary forecast concern Wednesday night and Thursday. All in all, the models were in pretty good agreement with the large scale flow pattern in the extended across the CONUS and with the timing and evolution of the front and waves of low pressure and ridging that will influence the weather of eastern Kentucky. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 716 AM EDT TUE JUL 16 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail, with exceptions coming with showers and thunderstorms later today, mainly after 21z, producing sub-VFR conditions, and then later tonight with any fog developing as a result of earlier rainfall and at least partially clearing skies. Winds will generally be light and variable, except becoming southwest at 5 to 10 kts in the afternoon before becoming light and variable again around sunset. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with thunderstorms, possibly extending a considerable distance away from the storms themselves particularly late this afternoon. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...CMC