Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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357 FXUS63 KJKL 172114 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 514 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms will impact the region at times through the middle of next week. After a likelihood in most places tonight, the lowest probability of will be Thursday night and Friday. Probabilities then increase as we move into the new week. - A welcomed relief from hot temperatures is in store through the middle of next week. However, after a drop in humidity Thursday and Friday, it will make a comeback as we move into next week. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 514 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2024 Clouds from a prior upstream MCS moved over the northern portion of the forecast area earlier today. Most of the precip died out upstream, but the persisting clouds managed to slow the rise in temperatures, which in turn held back instability and helped to keep convection to a minimum there this afternoon. Meanwhile, stronger heating allowed for numerous thunderstorms to develop over south central and southeast KY, and they are still ongoing. This activity will drop into TN and VA this evening, leaving a relative lull over our area. However, additional activity is expected tonight. There are currently numerous showers/thunderstorms near and north of the Ohio River. These are occurring along and ahead of a cold front dropping south southeast. Models bring this area of convection through Kentucky with the front tonight, and possibly lingering into Thursday in south central and southeast KY. Drier air eventually works in behind the front and convection is finished by late Thursday. As clouds decrease and dew points continue to lower on Thursday night, the cooler locations are expected to see temperatures drop below 60. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 325 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2024 There remains good agreement among the ensemble systems and deterministic guidance for much cooler weather than we have become accustom to over the past week or so. This as mid-level ridging breaks down and cold front pushes through much of the area. This will lead to northeast flow at the surface on friday leading to drier weather, with PWATs sub 1 inch in some cases and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. after lows bottom out in the upper 50s we will see highs on Friday push into the lower 80s and just a little below the normal values of around 85 degrees at JKL and 86 degrees at LOZ. The ensembles and deterministic models are still indicating that some height rises will move toward the Ohio Valley by the weekend into early next week. Either way we are still seeing the potential for a mid-level low to push into the Midwest. Given this we will continue to see near normal temperatures through the weekend into early next week. We will also be stuck on the periphery of the ridging and this should open the door for a slightly more active pattern to possibly lead to a few bouts of showers and thunderstorms especially early next week. Even so, storm total QPF from Saturday into Wednesday is still around a quarter of an inch in the Bluegrass to around 1.5 inches near the Cumberland Valley. The afternoon highs will also remain in the low to mid 80s as a result of more unsettled pattern and cloud cover. Not to mention the 850 mb temperatures flat line in the around 17 celsius range at best through the remainder of the period. Right now peak area wide chances of rain will be Tuesday and Wednesday at around 50-70 percent, as we start to see more shortwave energy show up. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2024 Scattered showers/thunderstorms have developed with diurnal destabilization this afternoon. They are most numerous over south central and southeast KY, with points further north and west not heating/destabilizing as much due to greater cloud cover earlier today. However, just about any place could have a shower or storm, and VCTS was used int TAFs. Where/when they occur, they may bring sub-VFR conditions. Outside of precip, mainly VFR conditions will prevail. There is a higher probability for showers/thunderstorms ahead of a cold frontal passage from northwest to southeast tonight, and a TEMPO group was used in TAFs for this. Behind the front, forecast soundings and guidance indicate IFR conditions for a time overnight into Thursday morning for most of the area. It`s been included in all TAFs except for KSYM, but confidence is not too high. Improvement back to VFR conditions is expected by early Thursday afternoon. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...HAL