521
FXUS63 KJKL 082312
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
712 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot weather will be in place Tuesday with afternoon
  heat indices approaching 100 degrees in a few locations.

- The remnants of Beryl will track to our northwest Tuesday into
  Wednesday, bringing in a few storms Tuesday afternoon and
  evening that could be strong with damaging wind gusts the main
  threat though a tornado cannot be ruled out.

- More seasonable temperatures follow for Thursday, before daily
  highs return back to the lower 90s by the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 712 PM EDT MON JUL 8 2024

Satellite imagery shows some towering cumulus clouds extending
from Jackson County northeast to Menifee and Morgan Counties.
Additionally, outflow boundaries are approaching the area from
earlier storms to the south and cumulus buildups to the north.
Have thus expanded 15 PoPs northwest toward these areas for the
next couple of hours as an isolated shower or thunderstorm is
possible, especially in Jackson County where radar depicts a
shower occurring now. Otherwise, the forecast remains as is with
no changes. Evening convection should weaken with the loss of
daytime heating.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUL 8 2024

The afternoon surface analysis shows a high pressure off to our
east and a warm front set up across the Tennessee Valley. This
warm front is expected to push northward through the period. This
afternoon we has showers and thunderstorms that have developed
near the Tennessee and Virginia borders as expected this
afternoon. These will be very slow moving with heavy rainfall
possible in some locations. We will see this activity dissipate
through the evening as we loose diurnal heating.

Tonight, we will see a mix of sun and clouds as we continue to
see increasing moisture from post tropical cyclone Beryl advect
northward. The deterministic and ensemble guidance is in good
agreement with this system pushing northward into the ARKLATEX
tonight. Given this we could see another period of fog mainly in
the river valleys, but possibly some elsewhere given the
increasing moisture return. The lows should be fairly uniform
tonight in the upper 60s to lower 70.

Tuesday, we will continue to see post tropical cyclone Beryl
track northward toward the Ohio Valley. The deterministic and
ensemble systems have this now low pressure system tracking into
western Kentucky by Tuesday afternoon , with a warm front
extending northeastward near the Ohio River. Given the cyclonic
motion on the northeast side of this post tropical cyclone there
would be ample spin for some lower top supercells or perhaps some
multi-cell clusters. This could lead to a few stronger storms
dependent on how much instability that is built across the area,
with guidance being in the 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. That is a bit
on the marginal side, but the ample spin could make it a little
more interesting. This as we see fairly good curvature in the
lowest 3 km of the hodographs. SPC collaborated with many offices
on this today and opted to add in a slight to the west which
aligns with the better thinking on the location of the warm front.
They opted to keep a good portion of eastern Kentucky in a
marginal risk and that seems reasonable given some uncertainty
noted above. The main threat would be strong damaging wind gusts,
but a quick spin up tornado can`t be ruled out. It could be
another warm day tomorrow depending on how cloud cover shakes out,
with low 90s for most most spots and heat indices near 100 degree
owing to the increasing moisture.

Tuesday night, expect shower and thunderstorm activity to continue
(chance of rain in the 30-60 percent range), as ensemble and
deterministic guidance show low pressure push further into the Ohio
Valley and mid-level heights fall some as trough axis pushes
eastward into the Ohio Valley. Given some cloud cover and potential
for rain will keep overnight lows more uniform in the low 70s for
most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT MON JUL 8 2024

The overall large scale flow pattern aloft in the extended will
feature what used to be tropical cyclone Beryl, a cold front
associated with it, and a larger scale trough aloft that Beryl will
be embedded in. The Beryl/cold front hybrid will move by to
northwest and north Wednesday and Wednesday night, and will bring
good chances for showers and storms to the area. The best rain
chances will occur on Wednesday, as Beryl moves closest to us and
during peak heating that afternoon and evening. The rain should
steadily taper off late Wednesday night, and be mostly out of the
area by early Thursday morning. However, a number of weaker impulses
are expected to pass over the area from Thursday onward, and will
bring chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to eastern
Kentucky at times all the way into the weekend and into the first of
next week. The rain chances will be highest during peak heating each
afternoon and evening.

The models actually have done a pretty good job handling the
evolution of what`s left of Beryl in the extended, so felt good
going with the latest runs of the GFS and GFS Ensembles to augment
the latest NBM runs in the extended. Temperatures will cool off a
bit while Beryl moves by, with persistent clouds and precipitation
acting to moderate things a bit. After Beryl moves by, we should see
some cooler move in, allowing for a few days without daytime maxes
in the 90s(Wed thru Fri). However, we will likely see a return of
hot and muggy conditions Saturday through Monday, as fewer clouds
allow for better daytime heating, and we also see late day influxes
of warm moist air off the Gulf of Mexico into the region. No weather
hazards expected in the extended at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT MON JUL 8 2024

We will see VFR conditions for most locations for the period.
There are some showers and eventually the potential for a few
thunderstorms mainly near the Tennessee and Virginia border. These
are not expected to affected the TAF sites at this time. There is
the potential for low clouds and fog to develop mainly in the
river valleys late tonight, and there is the outside chance this
could drift into a TAF site. Given short term guidance is not as
bold with this idea will leave out of the TAF sites for now. The
winds will be light and variable generally less than 5 knots out
of the south and southeast.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ