Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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521 FXUS63 KJKL 071906 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 306 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot and rain-free weather follows through tomorrow morning before a humid and unsettled weather pattern develops during the new work week. - The remnants of Beryl will track to our northwest Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 306 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2024 The afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure centered near the northern parts of the Ohio Valley. In the mid-level, we will see influence from the higher heights in the Southeast US. The deterministic and ensemble solutions are in good agreement the mid- level heights remain largely in place and high pressure pushes east through the period. Sensible weather wise, we will see a mix of clear skies and clouds tonight as mid- and higher level flow bring in mainly high clouds at times. This could still lead to some slight ridge/valley differences in overnight lows, with lows in the low to mid 60s in the valleys and mid to upper 60s on the ridges. There could also be another episode of mainly river valley fog similar to last night depending on cloud cover to some degree. The guidance including ensembles shows surface high pushes east and opens up weak but southwest flow at the surface. This should help to yield higher PWAT values similar to that of what we are seeing in the Smokey Mountains today. The HREF shows shows at least 1.5 to 1.7 PWATs in those areas nearer the Tennessee and Virginia border by Monday afternoon. The Smokies are seeing showers and thunderstorms develop under ample heating and moisture today. Given this did maintain 15 to 25 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly near the higher terrain of the far southeast near the Virginia and Tennessee border for Monday afternoon. Otherwise, height rises in the afternoon will keep most other areas dry at this point. We will see another hot afternoon with heat indices climbing to near 100 degrees, as we see moisture return and afternoon highs in the lower 90s. We could start seeing more clouds return especially Monday night given the remnants of Beryl moves into parts of the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Given this only minor ridge/valley splits were maintained at this point, with overnight lows generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 515 AM EDT SUN JUL 7 2024 A seasonably strong ridge will start out aligned across the West, with a positively tilted trough positioned from Hudson Bay through the western Great Lakes/Upper Midwest and southern Plains. Meanwhile, Beryl will be closing in on the Arklatex region, while another ridge center remains over the southeastern CONUS. The models are in decent agreement through next week, with the remnants of Beryl eventually combining with the positively tilted trough to our west through mid-week. This trough will then gradually dampen by the end of the work week, with ridging and associated increasing 500 mb heights taking hold over the Tennessee and Ohio Valley into next weekend. Details associated with Beryl and its more specific impacts across eastern Kentucky still remain uncertain at this time. In general, the track remains to our northwest Tuesday into Wednesday. While the typical influx of anomalously high PWATs will occur, storm motions will be progressive. The low level flow will also be more southeasterly while the system is stronger. As such, the current model guidance does not show more concentrated higher QPF across eastern Kentucky. Still, at least isolated heavy rainers will be a possibility. Effective shears will also peak in the 30-35 kt range, coupled with more narrow CAPE profiles. This could allow for a few stronger storms, but will await further model guidance before including any more specifics at this point. PoPs will peak in the 40-60% range Tuesday night into Wednesday, as the core of the tropical remnants pass through, along with an associated surface cold front, and short wave energy aloft. Diurnally-driven PoP chances will then become more confined across southeastern Kentucky through the rest of the week, as the surface front stalls over the Appalachians. Tuesday looks to be the overall hottest day through the extended, with highs mainly in the lower 90s. This, coupled with dew points in the low 70s, will yield peak heat indices of around 100 degrees. Highs will then retreat to the mid and upper 80s for mid-week, with stormier conditions at play. A slight lowering of the dew points will occur on Thursday behind the cold front. Temperatures will then trend warmer into next weekend, with highs returning to around 90 degrees by Saturday, along with dew points nearing around 70 once again. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2024 We have high pressure at the surface and ridging in the mid-levels leading to VFR conditions this afternoon. There are some afternoon cumulus hanging around 4 kft and these will dissipate as we move toward the evening. Outside this valley fog will be possible once again tonight and will mainly be confined to the river valley locations. However, did add in MVFR mist at SME and SYM given a more persistence forecast. This fog will lift around 13 to 14Z Monday morning. The winds will remain light and calm generally less that 5 knots out of the northeast and then southwest by Monday afternoon. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...DJ