Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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317 FXUS63 KJKL 052212 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 612 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few thunderstorms through early this evening could produce locally heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts. - Somewhat cooler and less humid weather arrives behind a cold front on Saturday. - Seasonably hot and rain-free weather follows for Sunday before a humid and unsettled weather pattern develops for the new work week. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 440 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2024 Late this afternoon, narrows ridging extended from portions of the northern Gulf of Mexico and southeast across portions of the southeastern Conus to southeast of the mid Atlantic coast with a stronger ridge another near the west coast of the Conus and a general area of broad troughing south from central Canada into the western Great Lakes to south central Conus and MS Valley. A shortwave trough ahead of the 500 mb trough axis was working across portions of the OH Valley at this time with associated convection that crossed the region from late in the morning into the afternoon having largely departed to WV and VA. At the surface, an area of low pressure was working across the Great Lakes region with a trailing cold front working across western and central KY to the Arklatex and further west toward the Southern Plains. Behind this system a sfc high extended from the Plains toward the mid MS Valley. This evening and tonight, the shortwave trough working across the region will depart to the east and northeast this evening. The 500 mb trough axis will remain across Central portions of the Conus and west of the Commonwealth through Saturday night. Height rises are expected to rise a bit on Saturday across the southeastern Conus and into eastern KY, while little change in mid level heights is expected late tonight as well as on Saturday night. At the surface, the cold front will continue east this evening across eastern KY and work into WV and VA overnight. Behind this system, sfc high pressure will build east into the OH Valley and settle over portions of the OH Valley and the Appalachians to end the period. Ahead of the front, isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will remain possible through this evening with chances diminishing even near the WV and VA border not longer after midnight. Fog should form at least in the valleys late tonight and could become rather widespread areawide following rainfall earlier today. A cooler and drier airmass will move into the area behind the front as the high works east into the area for Saturday and remain in place through Saturday night. Less humid weather for Saturday and Saturday night will be most notable with lows falling below 70 for most areas tonight and areawide on Saturday night. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 610 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2024 Weak surface high pressure will initially be found over the Mid- Ohio Ohio Valley on Sunday morning while a frontal boundary will be parked along the southeastern slopes of the Appalachians, corralling the soupy humidity levels to our south and east. The placid weather over the Ohio Valley won`t persist though as the combination of two weather makers, a upper level trough dipping into the Central CONUS and and Hurricane Beryl approaching the Lower Rio Grande Valley, likely set the stage for periods of wet weather across the eastern Kentucky Coalfields. High pressure will gradually depart to the northeast on Sunday, allowing a southerly return flow to develop in advance of the approaching upper level trough. This will pull the boundary to our south back north and bring back sultry humidity levels on Monday. Meanwhile, the advancing trough will push a cold front into the Ohio Valley. This will lead to renewed diurnally modulated shower and thunderstorm activity beginning Monday and lasting into Tuesday. Thereafter, models are increasingly latching onto the idea of Beryl`s remnants riding northeastward along the boundary during the middle and latter portions of the week, which would feed tropical moisture into our region and keep the daily threat of showers and thunderstorms over our area. Temperature-wise, look for highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s on Sunday, warming slightly into the upper 80s to lower 90s on Monday. The most notable sensible change will be the rise in humidity levels, which will boost Monday afternoon`s heat indices to near 100F at some locations. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will also return on Monday. Greater cloud cover and precipitation will keep temperatures more subdued from Tuesday through at least Thursday, with highs primarily in the middle 80s. Nighttime lows are forecast to range from the mid 60s to lower 70s through the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2024 Convection had cleared all but the KSJS vicinity at issuance time. A lull in activity may occur during the afternoon, but another round or two of isolated to scattered convection will remain possible until a cold front crosses the region this evening into the overnight and a upper disturbance passes. Reductions to MVFR and IFR if not briefly near airport mins could occur in the strongest convection. Winds will average 10 KT or less outside of any convection, from the southwest to west through 06Z and then becoming west to northwest for the balance of the period behind the cold front. Fog will also become a concern in the 06Z to 13Z timeframe when at least IFR and MVFR reductions will be possible. Some reductions due these levels due to low clouds could occur in that timeframe as well. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...GEERTSON AVIATION...JP