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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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728 FXUS63 KJKL 061140 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 740 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Somewhat cooler and less humid weather arrives behind a cold front today. - Seasonably hot and rain-free weather follows for Sunday before a humid and unsettled weather pattern develops for the new work week. - We will also be watching the course of Beryl`s remains later in the week for possible impacts here in eastern Kentucky. && .UPDATE... Issued at 725 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2024 No significant changes to the forecast - just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids with this update. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 455 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2024 08Z sfc analysis shows a cold front dropping through the eastern parts of Kentucky. This has mostly shunted the convection off to the southeast of the state with just some clouds left behind. These clouds have so far been enough to limit the fog formation overnight, but as they clear out into dawn do expect a bit more fog development. Otherwise, temperatures are running in the lower 70s most places with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, amid light winds. The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in pretty good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict general troughiness to the northwest of the area with ridging off to the southeast through Sunday. Benign southwest mid level flow with only limited energy holds forth over the southern Ohio Valley during this time but looking ahead this stable pattern aloft may help to provide a glide path for the remnants of Beryl to impact the area later in the week. The model spread through the short term is still fairly small so the NBM was used as the starting point for the grids through Sunday afternoon with little deviation needed aside from the addition of more terrain details for hourly and low temperatures tonight. Sensible weather features a quiet, dry, and somewhat more comfortable day in the wake of a cold front exiting the area just after dawn. This will set the stage for a decent ridge to valley temperature split after dark and through the night. In addition, valley fog is anticipated with locally dense patches a good bet. Sunday will see more heat and humidity move back into the area as the post frontal high pressure starts to move off to the northeast allowing return flow warmth and humidity to reenter this part of the state. The main changes to the NBM starting point consisted of adjusting the temperatures in order to better reflect more terrain details tonight. PoPs were minimal from the NBM and were basically kept that way through the period. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 409 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2024 Surface high pressure will continue to remain in place overhead to start the period but with the approach of an upper-level trough, flow turns southwesterly allowing for influx of moisture. As a result, temperatures on Monday are forecast to the warmest of the period as highs are forecast to be in the low to mid-90s. This coupled with warm, moist southwesterly flow, heat indices will be approaching 100 degrees to over 100 in isolated locations. Models continue to remain in agreement with a positively tilted trough approaching the area. At the surface, a surface low will be tracking through the Upper Great Lakes. Along and ahead of the front, increasing showers and thunderstorms are likely. As the low tracks through the Great Lakes, the front will dive southeast through the CWA. Forecast soundings, sampled ahead of the front show a marginally severe atmosphere. Can`t rule out a severe storm or two but overall, pre-FROPA environment appears to be a poor supportive environment for severe storms. As the surface low ejects northeast, the surface boundary will extend southwest toward the Ozark Plateau. This will set the stage for the remnants of Hurricane Beryl to ride along the boundary and into the forecast area for the end of the forecast period. Overall, the period will with a break from the showers and storms but moving into next week, periods of showers and thunderstorms will bring much needed rain to the area. However, temperatures will continue to hang around climatological ranges as daytime highs in the mid-80s to low-90s and overnight lows ranging from the upper-50s to upper-60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2024 A cold front crossed the region overnight and basically ended chances for showers now with drier air inbound from the north. Winds will average 5 kts or less from the west to northwest for the balance of the period. Patchy fog will remain a concern through 13Z when some MVFR reductions will be possible at the SME TAF site, but more prevalent in the valleys. SKC conditions follow through the rest of the period from mid-morning on. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...VORST AVIATION...GREIF