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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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594 FXUS63 KJKL 080615 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 215 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot and rain-free weather follows this morning before a humid and unsettled weather pattern develops during the week. - The remnants of Beryl will track to our northwest Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity. && .UPDATE... Issued at 200 AM EDT MON JUL 8 2024 No significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids with this update. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. UPDATE Issued at 1050 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2024 There are significant changes with the late evening update. The forecasts were initialized with the observations to ensure a smooth blend into the forecast. UPDATE Issued at 722 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2024 Radar and satellite suggests a small light rain shower may have developed recently in Morgan County, with agitated cumulus clouds extending southwest from Morgan and Elliott counties southwest to Rockcastle Counties. With the loss of daytime heating, some of this cumulus activity is already dissipating. Nevertheless, I penciled in a small edit area of non-zero PoPs in these areas until 01z. Otherwise, there are no changes to the forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 306 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2024 The afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure centered near the northern parts of the Ohio Valley. In the mid-level, we will see influence from the higher heights in the Southeast US. The deterministic and ensemble solutions are in good agreement the mid- level heights remain largely in place and high pressure pushes east through the period. Sensible weather wise, we will see a mix of clear skies and clouds tonight as mid- and higher level flow bring in mainly high clouds at times. This could still lead to some slight ridge/valley differences in overnight lows, with lows in the low to mid 60s in the valleys and mid to upper 60s on the ridges. There could also be another episode of mainly river valley fog similar to last night depending on cloud cover to some degree. The guidance including ensembles shows surface high pushes east and opens up weak but southwest flow at the surface. This should help to yield higher PWAT values similar to that of what we are seeing in the Smokey Mountains today. The HREF shows shows at least 1.5 to 1.7 PWATs in those areas nearer the Tennessee and Virginia border by Monday afternoon. The Smokies are seeing showers and thunderstorms develop under ample heating and moisture today. Given this did maintain 15 to 25 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly near the higher terrain of the far southeast near the Virginia and Tennessee border for Monday afternoon. Otherwise, height rises in the afternoon will keep most other areas dry at this point. We will see another hot afternoon with heat indices climbing to near 100 degrees, as we see moisture return and afternoon highs in the lower 90s. We could start seeing more clouds return especially Monday night given the remnants of Beryl moves into parts of the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Given this only minor ridge/valley splits were maintained at this point, with overnight lows generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 339 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2024 The overall large scale upper level flow pattern in the extended will start off with a broad trough of low pressure in place over the western CONUS west of the Rocky Mountains. This trough will extended from the Baja Peninsula northward through the desert southwest and up the west coast, and into portions of the Pacific Northwest early Tuesday. Another trough of low pressure will be in place across the Great Plains eastward into the Great Lakes and middle and lower Mississippi Valley. The remnants of Beryl will be the highlighted weather feature in the extended. Beryl will ride northward along a cold front that will extend southward from a surface trough centered just north of the eastern Great Lakes in Canada. Lastly, a dirty ridge of high pressure aloft will be in place over the eastern Atlantic just off the southeastern CONUS coast. Moist, tropical air flowing onshore around the ridge will spark showers and storms across the state of Florida and portions of the southeastern seaboard. The remnants of Beryl will track slowly north and northeastward along a surface front through out the week, and will bring rain to a large portion of the eastern CONUS for several days. In fact, Beryl could wet the ground from the southern Plains, the mid- Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, western Ohio Valley and into New England by the time next weekend arrives. There will be risks of heavy rainfall and flooding where what`s left of Beryl tracks. For our neck of the woods, we should see minimal impacts from Beryl, but should still pick up scattered showers and storms as the system moves by just to our west mid-week. Once Beryl has moved away toward the end of the week, we could still see showers and storms moving in from the east, as return flow behind Beryl pushes additional moisture into the region to end the week and heading into the weekend. As far as temperatures go, we should see generally above normal readings each day, with highs maxing out mainly in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Nightly lows will fall into the upper 60s and lower 70s for most locations. The models were actually doing a decent job with Beryl`s evolution in the extended, with similar tracks and system strength through the end of the week. That being said, used a combination of the ECMWF and GFS ensembles to handle things in the extended. Went pretty close to MOS guidance for temps in the extended, with modifications made where needed. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON JUL 8 2024 While VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, some fog will be around into dawn mainly in thr valleys, and may briefly impact the SME and/or SYM TAF sites. Look for all the fog to clear out by 13Z. A stray shower or storm will be possible this afternoon for the southeast section of the area but the chance of one of these affecting any of the terminals is quite low. The winds will be generally light and variable through the day. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...CMC/GREIF