597
FXUS62 KJAX 091823
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
223 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Scattered showers and storms have developed mainly west of highway
301 over NE FL at noon. The convection will continue to shift to
the east and expand in areal coverage over to the I-95 corridor
and beaches the next couple hours and with another round of
convection firing up into coastal Georgia this late afternoon and
early evening. Small Portions of the Suwannee Valley have
received just shy of 2 inch totals of rain (radar estimated) thus
far and storms progress eastward some additional gully washers of
localized of 1 to 2 inch rainfall amounts are anticipated due to
slow moving nature of the storms. Gusty winds should remain below
severe levels with the pattern of warm mid level temperatures -5
Celsius keeping mid level lapse rates weak, but some outflows may
deliver wind gusts 45-55 mph as low level flow increases some
today.

Isolated embedded elevated convection is plausible with post
convective stratiform rain through the late evening. During the
overnight hours lingering mid/high clouds overnight. Some
potential patchy fog developing a couple hours before daybreak
particularly in areas that were on the receiving end of today`s
heaviest rainfall.

At the surface, high pressure will continue to hold over west
central and southwest Florida with the surface ridge axis across
south Florida. This will create light onshore west to southwest
flow over the forecast area tonight. This will favor scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms developing along Big Bend and
Florida`s west coast during the pre- dawn hours shifting inland
to the western precipice of Suwannee Valley around sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

A front sitting across central Georgia Wednesday and Thursday
along with S/SW steering flow will allow for high PWATs across NE
FL and SE GA. On Wednesday, westerly winds will bring in showers
and storms off the Gulf earlier in the day, later moving inland
and interacting with the Atlantic sea breeze, prompting
precipitation potential across the area in the 60-80% range.
Temperatures will be a tad above average Wednesday, with highs
ranging from the lower to upper 90s with heat indices maxing out
at 100-105 degrees.

Thursday, there will be a decent spread in convection coverage,
with isolated to scattered coverage north of I-10, with higher
precipitation potential south of I-10. Temperatures will lower a
few degrees Thursday over NE FL to near normal in the lower to
mid 90s as SE GA heats up more due to less rain coverage.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

The front will linger across south-central Georgia, slowly
dissipating through Saturday. Fairly weak southerly flow allowing
both the Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes to push inland each day and
interact, numerous showers and thunderstorms will be able to
develop in the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will
generally reach the lower to mid 90s each day, with lows in the
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Showers/thunderstorms continue to press into interior SE GA also
toward the I-95 corridor and beaches of NE FL this afternoon where
it is fixing to meet up with the east coast sea breeze between
18z and 19z. With strong and heaviest rain producing storms, some
gusty winds and MVFR CIGS and VSBYs are possible indicated with
TEMPO groups between now and 21z. Isolated embedded convection is
plausible with post convective stratiform rain from 21z to 00z.
For KSSI the timing will be little later than NE FL terminals with
convection from 19z through 22z, with VCTS through 01z. After
sundown some mid and high clouds with be present as showers and
storms push well offshore. Some brief MVFR fog chances around
sunrise with the usual potential for IFR conds at VQQ and GNV. VFR
conditions anticipated during early daylight hours over most
terminals with the exception of GNV where some morning convection
is possible as storms edge in from the Big Bend of Florida.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Surface high pressure ridge axis will extend south and southwest
of the waters this week while a trough of low pressure will
approach from northwest during the latter half of the week. This
will maintain south to southwesterly flow across the waters this
week, with 2-3 ft seas and daily sea breezes each afternoon near
the coast where scattered to numerous showers and T`storms will
develop.

Rip Currents: Offshore light winds will create a low risk for rip
currents at all area beaches again Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  77  92  74  94 /  30  70   0  20
SSI  78  92  78  92 /  60  70  20  30
JAX  77  94  76  93 /  60  80  20  50
SGJ  76  95  77  91 /  60  70  30  60
GNV  75  93  75  90 /  40  60  10  60
OCF  76  92  76  91 /  30  60  20  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$