994
FXUS62 KJAX 101741
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
141 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

High pressure ridge extends from south Florida through the NE Gulf
of Mexico, which will bring a continued south-southwest flow at
the surface. The h850 high pressure are over southwest Fl with
bases of h850 trof oriented from northeast to southwest which is
conducive for steering winds to have future storm movement go
from north-northwest to south-southeast. Convection has started
over the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor. As convection pushes
toward highway 301 later this morning it is expected to expand in
areal coverage and then the convection will press into the I-95
corridor and the beaches. The east coast sea breeze will remain
pinned for most of the day with a stronger western flow, but both
sea breezes may converge at the beaches at the end of the
afternoon where the strongest convection and heaviest showers may
develop. JAX sounding shower PWAT values at 2.32 inches with
derived satellite imagery showing this axis going across the I-10
corridor to the FL/GA boundary where the highest chances of precip
(categorical) are indicated for the afternoon and evening
forecast. Current forecast has these trends and with no changes on
tap.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Low level ridging over south FL will work to the west into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico today as the trailing moisture from former
Tropical Cyclone Beryl sink from central GA into SE GA in the
form of a weak frontal boundary. Ahead of this boundary, westerly
winds will elevate to 10-15 mph with highest moisture levels north
of I-10 where PWATs will exceed 2.25 inches while PWATs range
closer to normal levels over north central FL around 1.75. Numerous
to widespread showers and T`storms will shift eastward from Gulf
of Mexico and along the approaching frontal boundary through the
midday to early afternoon hours before reaching the I-95 corridor
by early to mid afternoon. Wind gusts should remain sub severe,
mainly in the 40-50 mph range given mid level temperatures still
warmer than average around -5 to -6 Celsius. Swifter storm motions
should also limit the heavy rainfall threat with locally heavy
amounts likely to remain in the 1-2 inch range while most locations
receive around quarter to a half inch.

High temperatures will peak in the midday to early afternoon into
the low 90s for SE GA and the low 90s over NE FL with mid 90s
in spots along I-95 and north central FL ahead of T`storms and over
north central FL where coverage will be more scattered due to more
normal PWAT levels. Peak heat index values will be in the 104-108
range, just below heat advisory levels before convection cools most
locations.

Tonight, T`storms and showers should fade off the Atlantic coast
and over north central FL by midnight with mostly cloudy skies
over NE FL and partly cloudy skies over SE GA where slightly drier
air will attempt to filter in overnight. Light westerly winds will
turn northwesterly towards sunrise 4-8 mph. Lows will be in the
lower to mid 70s over inland SE GA, mid 70s over inland NE FL and
the upper 70s over the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 324 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Thursday through Friday Night...An upper level long wave trough
will be positioned along the eastern seaboard with a strong short
wave digging into the Mississippi River Valley. A quasi-stationary
trough/frontal boundary will be oriented east-west along the upper
Gulf coast and south-central Georgia with showers and
thunderstorms active along it to begin the day. The convection
will be largely confined to Florida and areas of Georgia along the
FL-GA State Line. The convection will diminish overnight but some
shower activity will continue into the night. Highs will be in the
lower to mid 90s with Heat Index values of 97-102F. Lows will be
in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Saturday starts out much the same as the previous two days with
widely scatted showers and isolated thunderstorms south of the
boundary across central Georgia. The Bermuda Ridge axis will be
centered over south Florida with a synoptic southwesterly flow set
up across the region for the entire period. This will bring very
moist are with PWATS above 2 inches to the region with storms
moving from the west to the east. High temperatures will be
increasing with highs in the mid to upper 90s and lowers will be
in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Across NE FL convection is quite limited mainly confined east of a
line from Ponte Vedra to Ocala. This will convection will shift
eastward and will shift offshore or south of the CWA. Some
stratiform rain will linger over NE FL through 20z. Across SE GA,
some isolated cluster showers some with embedded elevated thunder
will move across the region with KSSI having a chance of
convection through 20z. Some brief showers and perhaps a gust to
25 knots is possible at KSSI. VFR conditions anticipated for rest
of the afternoon with west winds of 8 to 14 knots. Lighter west
winds anticipated overnight. An earlier start of the convection
will occur near the southern Big Bend of Florida during the
predawn hours. Some of the storms may spill over south of I-10
between 10z-13z, and then spread eastward during the morning hours
with VCTS and PROB30 groups for the early daylight hours with
thunderstorm chances increasing mainly south of I-10.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

High pressure ridge stays south and southwest of the waters while
a frontal boundary approaches from the northwest today and stalls
over the waters into Saturday before weakening. Mainly offshore
winds from the west to northwest expected into Thursday with more
southerly winds Friday into the weekend and early next week as
high pressure rebuilds to the east with daily afternoon seabreeze
circulations creating scattered to numerous afternoon and early
evening thunderstorms over the near shore waters.

Rip Currents: Offshore westerly winds will create a low risk for
rip currents at all area beaches today and again Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will move from the west to the
east across the region today with some locally heavy rainfall.
Transport winds will be westerly at 10 to 15 mph with maximum
dispersion values in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  73  93  73 /  50  10   0   0
SSI  91  78  93  79 /  60  10  10  20
JAX  93  76  93  75 /  80  10  30  20
SGJ  94  77  91  76 /  70  30  40  30
GNV  93  76  91  73 /  60  20  50  20
OCF  92  75  90  74 /  60  30  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$