333
FXUS62 KJAX 121738
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
138 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A continued slow increase in atmospheric moisture with PWATs
increasing into the 1.6" to 1.8" range is still expected to be
enough to kick off widely scattered showers and isolated storms
this afternoon and evening, mainly along the slowly inland moving
East Coast sea breeze which will make it between the I-95 and
US-17 highway corridors. Most of the convection will be brief in
nature, with slow and erratic movement and severe weather is not
expected. Any convection this evening will likely quickly fade
after sunset with fair skies and typical low temps in the
lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s/near 80 along the Atlantic
Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Steering flow will shift southerly Saturday returning moisture to
the area after a relatively dry past two days. With the weak
southerly flow, both sea breezes will be able to push inland and
interact, leaving numerous showers and storms possible for north
central Florida Saturday afternoon, with lower coverage over SE
GA. Heavy downpours will be likely as PWATs climb above 2.0" for
most of the area paired with slow storm motion expected.
Precipitation potential will increase a bit more on Sunday, and
with steering flow shifting more southwesterly, the Atlantic sea
breeze will be fairly pinned to the coast, leaving higher storm
coverage near the beaches as opposed to Saturday.

High temperatures will stay above normal this weekend, reaching
the mid to upper 90s area-wide, with low temperatures in the mid
to upper 70s. Heat indices will generally reach the 100-105 range,
although some locations are currently forecast to reach 108-110
along the east coast and near the St. Johns river basin on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Temperatures during this period will remain above average, though
trending slightly downward each day. Some locations, especially
near the coast will be close to Heat Advisory criteria on Monday.
Similar storm coverage is expected daily, with diurnal convection
firing up each afternoon, with the highest coverage over north
central Florida where sea breezes interact.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Still VFR at all TAF sites, but Cumulus field starting to become
more SCT-BKN in the 4000-5000 ft range with cirrus above this
afternoon and still some hope that enough moisture and instability
will produce some widely scattered convection with best chances at
SSI and will keep VCTS there, while a bit lower chances expected
at NE FL TAF sites and likely only expect to get a few isolated
showers there so will go with VCSH for now, with any activity
expected to fade around sunset in the 00-01Z time frame. Rest of
the TAF period looks VFR for the most part, except for the usual
MVFR BR chances at VQQ around sunrise. Any lower clouds or
convection not really expected Saturday morning before the end of
the current TAF period and can likely be added with the next
forecast package.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

A weak surface low near the offshore waters will continue to move
northwards towards the South Carolina coast and dissipate this
weekend. From Sunday onward, the stagnant high pressure pattern
will change very little, with a predominant southerly flow in
place and afternoon sea breeze development. Seas will gradually
build through the weekend as a modest onshore swell reaches the
local waters. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
be likely each day over the local waters.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk this weekend for NE FL and
SE GA beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  97  75  97 /  20  20   0  30
SSI  80  94  80  93 /  20  30  10  30
JAX  76  96  77  96 /  20  40  10  60
SGJ  77  94  78  93 /  20  40  10  60
GNV  74  94  74  93 /  20  50  10  80
OCF  74  94  76  93 /  20  70  20  90

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$