Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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408 FXUS62 KJAX 130657 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 257 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)... A transition back to a more typical summertime convection regime will occur today as a tongue of deep moisture (PWATs 1.8-2.0"+), currently plastered across southern and central FL, is gradually pushed northward. As this unfolds, a tight moisture gradient will set up with the deepest moisture generally south of I-10 and along the coast. It is in these areas where scattered to numerous showers and t`storms will develop this afternoon. The presence of a slow-moving easterly wave aloft, a couple dry layers in the low levels, and steep low level lapse rates will aid in deep convection and potential for strong downbursts (40-60 mph), mainly along and south of line from Gainesville to St Augustine. Given light steering flow, storm motion will be mainly outflow dominant; though it`s been dry over the last couple days, isolated bouts of minor flooding could still occur in prone areas (low-lying or urban). Scattered showers and isolated storms are also possible along the east coast sea breeze today but should be more garden-variety in nature north of I-10. Activity will fade rather quickly after sunset with skies trending mostly clear tonight. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, it will be another toasty day and increasing dewpoints will bolster heat index across NE FL. Ambient readings will peak around the mid 90s in NE FL and upper 90s in SE GA where drier air lingers. Could be a few localized areas along the immediate coast that reach heat index around 108 but anticipate most locations to stay below the Heat Advisory level, thus no headlines have been posted this morning. For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf && .SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday Night) Steering flow will remain weak and generally south to southwesterly through the short term period, which in essence will keep the sea breeze pinned a bit closer to the coast during the afternoon and evening daily. Layer moisture will continue to return closer to normal levels Sunday and into Monday as well as PWATs climb to 2" or higher, and therefore sea breeze shower/t`storm activity also trends closer to normal with each day with heavy downpours expected. The more southwesterly flow will also persist high temps above normal for both Sunday and Monday, with widespread mid 90s expected and some readings in the upper 90s possible over some inland areas, especially over inland southeast GA. These temps combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s in some spots will peak heat indices close to heat advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)... A similar pattern is expected to continue into Tuesday and the mid week period, with high chances for diurnal showers and t`storms and a weak flow regime. A frontal boundary starts to drop southward towards northern GA by Thursday and Friday, which could bring the potential for more widespread rain chances for the area. Temperatures are expected to be on a slight downward trend through the long term, above average Tuesday and Wednesday and closer to normal by Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS) Issued at 111 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 VFR conditions with light and variable winds continue through the rest of the morning. Convective chances ramp up this afternoon at NE FL terminals as the sea breezes move inland, especially at sites south of I-10 where deeper moisture and outflow interactions will be prominent. Peak period of convection appears to be between 19-23z but may linger for a few hours longer before fading completely around 02z. The sea breeze will shift winds to the east-southeasterly at most airfields along the I-95 corridor through the early afternoon hours. Winds may become erratic with t`storms in the vicinity through the afternoon and early evening. && .MARINE... Bermuda high pressure will become the dominant feature today with very little change in the broader pattern through the next week. A predominant southerly flow will be in place with afternoon sea breeze development each day. Seas will gradually build through the weekend into early next week as a modest onshore swell reaches the local waters. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and early evening hours each day. Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at all local beaches this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 97 75 97 76 / 30 10 40 10 SSI 93 80 93 79 / 30 10 40 20 JAX 96 77 96 76 / 40 10 60 20 SGJ 95 77 93 77 / 50 20 60 30 GNV 95 74 93 74 / 60 20 70 20 OCF 94 76 93 76 / 70 30 70 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$