408
FXUS62 KJAX 130657
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
257 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)...

A transition back to a more typical summertime convection regime
will occur today as a tongue of deep moisture (PWATs 1.8-2.0"+),
currently plastered across southern and central FL, is gradually
pushed northward. As this unfolds, a tight moisture gradient will
set up with the deepest moisture generally south of I-10 and along
the coast. It is in these areas where scattered to numerous
showers and t`storms will develop this afternoon. The presence of
a slow-moving easterly wave aloft, a couple dry layers in the low
levels, and steep low level lapse rates will aid in deep
convection and potential for strong downbursts (40-60 mph), mainly
along and south of line from Gainesville to St Augustine. Given
light steering flow, storm motion will be mainly outflow
dominant; though it`s been dry over the last couple days,
isolated bouts of minor flooding could still occur in prone areas
(low-lying or urban). Scattered showers and isolated storms are
also possible along the east coast sea breeze today but should be
more garden-variety in nature north of I-10. Activity will fade
rather quickly after sunset with skies trending mostly clear
tonight.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, it will be another
toasty day and increasing dewpoints will bolster heat index
across NE FL. Ambient readings will peak around the mid 90s in NE
FL and upper 90s in SE GA where drier air lingers. Could be a few
localized areas along the immediate coast that reach heat index
around 108 but anticipate most locations to stay below the Heat
Advisory level, thus no headlines have been posted this morning.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday Night)

Steering flow will remain weak and generally south to
southwesterly through the short term period, which in essence will
keep the sea breeze pinned a bit closer to the coast during the
afternoon and evening daily. Layer moisture will continue to
return closer to normal levels Sunday and into Monday as well as
PWATs climb to 2" or higher, and therefore sea breeze
shower/t`storm activity also trends closer to normal with each day
with heavy downpours expected. The more southwesterly flow will
also persist high temps above normal for both Sunday and Monday,
with widespread mid 90s expected and some readings in the upper
90s possible over some inland areas, especially over inland
southeast GA. These temps combined with dewpoints in the mid to
upper 70s in some spots will peak heat indices close to heat
advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)...

A similar pattern is expected to continue into Tuesday and the mid
week period, with high chances for diurnal showers and t`storms
and a weak flow regime. A frontal boundary starts to drop
southward towards northern GA by Thursday and Friday, which could
bring the potential for more widespread rain chances for the area.
Temperatures are expected to be on a slight downward trend through
the long term, above average Tuesday and Wednesday and closer to
normal by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions with light and variable winds continue through the
rest of the morning. Convective chances ramp up this afternoon at
NE FL terminals as the sea breezes move inland, especially at
sites south of I-10 where deeper moisture and outflow interactions
will be prominent. Peak period of convection appears to be
between 19-23z but may linger for a few hours longer before fading
completely around 02z. The sea breeze will shift winds to the
east-southeasterly at most airfields along the I-95 corridor
through the early afternoon hours. Winds may become erratic with
t`storms in the vicinity through the afternoon and early evening.

&&

.MARINE...

Bermuda high pressure will become the dominant feature today with
very little change in the broader pattern through the next week.
A predominant southerly flow will be in place with afternoon sea
breeze development each day. Seas will gradually build through the
weekend into early next week as a modest onshore swell reaches
the local waters. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will be possible during the afternoon and early evening hours each
day.

Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at all local beaches
this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  97  75  97  76 /  30  10  40  10
SSI  93  80  93  79 /  30  10  40  20
JAX  96  77  96  76 /  40  10  60  20
SGJ  95  77  93  77 /  50  20  60  30
GNV  95  74  93  74 /  60  20  70  20
OCF  94  76  93  76 /  70  30  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$