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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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462 FXUS62 KJAX 150722 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 322 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)... Biggest change today will be the development of a deeper, but light, southwesterly flow. This will send the Gulf sea breeze across NE FL and slowing the inland progress of the Atlantic sea breeze this afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers are expected along the sea breezes with potential for a handful of stronger storms along the collisions between the two and along the St Johns River breeze. Storms will be slow moving but generally shift east-northeast at speeds around 5-10 mph. Despite the weak motion, the deep moisture (PWATs > 2.0") will promote efficient rain rates which could result in localized flooding, especially in urban areas. Additionally, strong outflow winds (30-50 mph) are also possible with deeper updrafts. Amid the southwest flow, an earlier convective start is expected with storms developing as early as noon along the I-75 corridor, then spreading ENEward across NE FL through the afternoon before fading and pushing off the coast during the early evening. Hot and humid conditions continue, particularly at the coast where heat index of 107-110F are possible. A Heat Advisory for all of the immediate coastal zones will be in effect this afternoon. Inland zones will be hot as well but heat index values are more likely to stay below 108F. Take precautions when working outdoors today and take frequent breaks to hydrate/cool off. For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf && .SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday Night) Not much change in the pattern is expected for most of this period, as a modest south to southwest flow continues to prevail. The flow is expected to remain just strong enough for the sea breeze to be mainly pinned near I-95 during peak heating, with the Gulf sea breeze and other boundary collisions helping to fuel numerous convection area wide. Temps will also remain generally a bit above average as well, generally in the mid 90s except near the immediate coast. Dew points in the mid to upper 70s keep some areas close to heat advisory levels as well. && .LONG TERM...(Thursday Through Sunday) Numerous to even widespread convection looks to continue into most of the long term as a frontal boundary starts to slowly sag southward and stall just north of the area. An upper trough starts to dig southward into the southern Plains by the end of the week, but slows any progress further southeastward as stacked high pressure ridging remains in place across the FL peninsula in a blocking-like pattern. There is certainly discrepancies amongst guidance as to how this trough behaves, especially into this weekend. However, general outlook will be a persistent south to southeasterly flow with an unsettled pattern for the long term. Temperatures are expected to trend near to slightly above normal during this period. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS) Issued at 212 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Steady VFR conditions through the period outside of convective influences. Scattered t`storms will develop along a pinned sea breeze early this afternoon. Convection may initiate as early as 16z, but impacts to terminals along the I-95 corridor are more likely between 19z-22z. Concerns with convection will be downburst/outflow winds and occasional visibility restriction due to downpours. Light southwest winds prevail at inland sites through the day. The easterly (Atlantic) sea breeze around 6-10 kts will push into the KSSI/KSGJ/KCRG terminals early this afternoon but will stall around I-95. && .MARINE... A stagnant pattern will be set up across the region this week with high pressure to the east and troughing to the northwest. Winds will favor a southerly direction, surging to 10 to 15 knots with the afternoon sea breeze. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible each day this week. A cool front will approach late this week but likely stall well to the north. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents today and Tuesday at area beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 96 75 95 75 / 50 30 60 20 SSI 93 78 93 79 / 40 30 60 30 JAX 95 76 96 76 / 70 30 70 30 SGJ 94 77 94 77 / 60 30 70 30 GNV 92 73 93 73 / 80 30 60 20 OCF 93 75 94 75 / 80 40 60 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-125-133-138. GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-166. AM...None. && $$