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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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094 FXUS62 KJAX 201812 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 212 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Broad 500 mb troughing extends over the Great Lakes southward to the lower MS Valley. Some weak mid level vort lobes are forecast to move across AL and parts of GA ahead of the trough in southwest flow aloft. Plenty of moisture exists with regional analyses showing PWATS of 1.9 to 2.1 inches. Max temps continue as forecast in the lower 90s, with heat indices generally near 108 or less, just below advisory. Showers and storms should become more numerous and possibly widespread during the peak time frame from 4 PM-8 PM and then translate offshore into coastal waters. Main threats will be strong wind gusts and frequent lightning. SPC continues to highlight a marginal risk of severe storms mainly across southeast GA through the evening, mainly for a locally damaging wind gust. Some lingering showers and isolated to scattered tstorms likely around from 9pm to midnight before nearly dissipating by 1 am. Some light patchy fog possible but not expected to be mentioned in the forecast text. Lows tonight in the 71 to 76 deg range. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 High pressure will be located east northeast of the region through this period. The location of the high is significant, as the flow around it will help to dictate the direction storms moves. This past week, the high has been located to the east, with weak troughing to the northwest. This pattern produced a southwest flow, and pushed convection toward the east coast each afternoon, with the east coast sea breeze largely stuck near the coast. However, with the high to the east northeast, the prevailing flow will be from the south southeast this period. Convection this period, with initiate in the early afternoon hours of Sunday and Monday once diurnal heating provides enough instability. This convection will then be aided, and pushed inland by both the east coast sea breeze and to a lesser extent by the Gulf sea breeze. The sea breezes will then meet toward the center of the forecast area Sunday, where the greatest chance for mid to late afternoon convection will occur. On Monday afternoon, the east coast sea breeze will push a little further inland due to the high being a little further to the northeast, yielding a more southeast flow overall. Therefore, the sea breeze merger should take place closer to the I75 corridor, where the greatest potential for convection will exist in the mid to late afternoon hours. While, a few storms can not be ruled out near the east coast, the chance will be much lower this period, than this past week. The convective activity will diminish during the evening hours each day, with dry nights forecast. Temperatures will trend a little above normal this period. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 The high will remain centered to the east northeast through at least Thursday night, continuing the flow from the south southeast. This will continue the convective routine, with storms bubbling up in the early afternoon across the area, then being directed inland by the sea breezes. The east coast sea breeze will again be dominant due to help from the south southeast flow pattern. The breezes will merge near the I75 corridor, where the convective maximum will occur each afternoon. With loss of heating, convection will diminish during the evening hours, with dry nights forecast. Models are hinting at a pattern shift late in this period, as a trough digs into the southeastern US, pushing the high back toward the east again. If this pattern sets up, the area will be back in a more southwest flow, with convection moving east northeast through the day, and merger occurring closer to the east coast, with I95 corridor receiving the convective max later in the afternoon hours. Temperatures will trend near to a little above normal this period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 125 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 VFR clouds around at this time. A few showers and thunderstorms began to develop by about 16z-17z. Have continued to advertise TEMPO groups for TSRA this afternoon and into the evening, with just a slight adjustment to delay timing near CRG, JAX, and SSI. Showers and storms may contain brief wind gusts and low vsby to MVFR and IFR in heavy rainfall. The activity will concentration near or over the TAFs mainly in the 21z-01z time frame and then move offshore after about 02z. Mainly VFR overnight except for some MVFR vsby currently shown for VQQ. A repeat can be expected again Sunday for showers and storms, mainly aftn hours again. && .MARINE... Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Southeast to south winds around 10-15 kt expected into the evening and then shift more southwest by sunrise. A similar situation on Sunday into Monday. Seas mainly 2-3 ft. Early next week, the surface ridge will begin to shift a bit more northward, allowing more south to southeast flow to prevail and result in general sea conditions to nudge up from combo of wind waves and an east- southeast wind sea. May also see some surges in southerly winds up to near 15-20 kt for brief times (about 5 pm-10 pm) through the entire period, but models are not in good agreement on this and duration of this not likely to warrant headlines at this time. The main concern for boaters will be offshore moving t-storms the next couple of days, peaking in the aftn and evening hours. Rip Currents: A low-end moderate rip current risk owing to a mix of wind waves and swells of about 8-10 second periods from the east. This is likely to continue on Sunday as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 73 91 73 93 / 50 60 40 70 SSI 77 88 78 90 / 70 40 50 50 JAX 75 93 75 94 / 50 70 30 60 SGJ 75 92 75 93 / 60 40 20 50 GNV 73 93 73 93 / 40 60 20 70 OCF 74 94 75 94 / 40 60 20 90 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$