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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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770 FXUS62 KJAX 170523 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 123 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 818 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Showers and storms kept forecast higher temperatures from developing today, followed the trend and lowered temperatures for the remainder of the day and into the evening hours, with lows expected to get to the mid 70s. A couple of showers are still lingering over the Suwannee Valley Region and will begin to clear out before midnight with winds becoming near calm through much of the overnight hours over inland areas. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and move eastward this afternoon, later interacting with the pinned Atlantic sea breeze. Main hazards will be gusty winds and locally heavy downpours. Convection will taper off around sunset, with lows in the mid 70s inland, and upper 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Pattern for moist southwesterly flow with daily bouts of showers and thunderstorms, forming most heavily along sea breeze boundaries and areas of collision, will continue through midweek with zonal flow becoming more enhanced by Thursday as the pressure gradient between high pressure ridging to the south and the high pressure boundary to the north tightens and results in a more distinct southwesterly wind profile pressing back the diurnal east coast sea breeze. Temperatures will continue to be above average through this period with daily max temps reaching into the mid 90s with Heat Advisory conditions possible during peak heating. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Prevailing flow will be out of the southwest through the end of the week and then shift to become more out of the south and then southeast by the end of the period as the ridge of high pressure situated to the east shifts to be more to the northeast. Pattern for daily bouts of convection forming along the sea breeze boundaries and areas of collision will continue through the weekend. Temperatures will be above average through the end of the week and into the weekend with max temps rising into the 90s and a potential for Heat Advisory conditions through the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 117 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 VFR is expected to predominantly prevail through the overnight and morning period. Only exception will be VQQ where MVFR conditions will be possible at times early this morning. Convection is expected to move from west to east with the Gulf Coast Sea breeze southwest flow across terminals this afternoon, as the east coast sea breeze will be pinned from near I-95 to the coastline. Best chance for strong TSRA will be for sites north and east of GNV where sea breezes meet - TEMPO groups to be added later once confidence in timing/magnitude of impacts increases. && .MARINE... Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 The axis of Atlantic high pressure will stretch across the Florida peninsula through midweek, keeping a prevailing southerly wind flow in place across our local waters. Atlantic high pressure will sink southward later this week as a frontal boundary enters the southeastern states. Mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will increase in coverage throughout our local waters later this week as this boundary stalls to the northwest of our local waters. Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk continues through tomorrow for NE FL and SE GA beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 95 75 95 74 / 60 20 60 40 SSI 93 78 93 79 / 60 30 60 50 JAX 95 76 96 76 / 60 20 70 30 SGJ 94 77 94 77 / 60 20 60 20 GNV 92 73 94 74 / 70 10 70 20 OCF 93 75 94 75 / 70 10 80 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$