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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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315 FXUS62 KJAX 180010 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 810 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 811 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Periods of MVFR visibilities will be possible overnight at VQQ. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at least 15Z on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms developing during the morning hours along the Gulf coast sea breeze may approach the GNV terminal towards 16Z, with activity then developing along a slower moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary towards 18Z. Convection should then increase in coverage along the Interstate 95 corridor after 19Z as outflow boundaries merge, with a few strong thunderstorms possible at the regional terminals through around 23Z. We included PROB30 groups at each terminal for brief wind gusts around 30 knots and MVFR visibilities during heavier downpours. Activity should shift east of GNV by 21Z and will likely move offshore before 00Z Friday. Southerly surface winds around 5 knots this evening will diminish overnight at the inland terminals, with southwesterly winds then increasing to 5-10 knots at the terminals before 15Z. The Atlantic sea breeze boundary is expected to move slowly inland on Thursday, crossing the SGJ and SSI coastal terminals before 18Z and then CRG towards 19Z, with southeasterly winds increasing to 10-15 knots outside of developing thunderstorm activity following the passage of the sea breeze. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 247 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Elevated daily rain chances continue through Friday as SW steering flow continues across the local area between the 1000-500 mb ridge axis across south-central FL and weak troughs north of the region. Morning showers and storms will edge inland from the Gulf Coast region, expanding in coverage and progressing toward the Atlantic coast through early afternoon as diurnal instability increases. Additional convection will break across SE GA into the afternoon and linger into the early evening closer to low level trough trough axes and lingering outflow boundaries. Mid level temperatures continue near climo values with -6 to -7 deg C at 500 mb with weak upper level shear (< 25 kts) so convective ingredients continue to favor mainly pulse strong to isolated severe storm potential in the afternoon and early evening with boundary mergers. Storm motion of 10-15 kts will somewhat limit the localized flash flood threat, but, storms are dropping 2-4 inches within 2 hours where mergers occur...so a couple days of heavy rainfall could certainly cause localized flood issues. Storms will fade across inland coverage toward midnight with loss of instability, then resurrect toward the Gulf Coast toward sunrise with some inland drift across our Suwannee River Valley zones. Temperatures will trend within a few degrees of climo values with highs in the low-mid 90s and lows in the lower to mid 70s. Peak heat index values near 105 deg each day prior to convective cooling. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 247 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 The ridge across south-central FL begins to build northward across NE FL Saturday then shifts north of the local area Monday. This will transition prevailing flow from SW over the next couple of days to SSE this weekend then SE early next week, with a more dominant east coast sea breeze pattern. Elevated rain chances with locally heavy rainfall potential will continue through the weekend with high PWAT trapped under the ridge axis and weak storm motion (PWATs 1.9-2.25"). Monday through Wednesday night week, deep layer moisture begins to decrease some into the 1.6-2 inch range favoring more scattered shower and thunderstorm activity for most inland areas (40-50% rain chances), then numerous (50-60%) where sea breezes and boundaries merge during the afternoon and evening near and west of I-75. Temperatures will trend near to above normal with highs in the low-mid 90s and lows in the 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 247 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 The western periphery of the Bermuda Ridge will be right over our coastal waters and then the ridge axis will ridge west into the Gulf south of us. This will keep a general south to southwest flow pattern over our waters next few days. Will be some breaks in that pattern with a wind shift to the southeast near shore each afternoon and evening as the sea breeze develops. As with most of the peripheral ridge situations will see nocturnal southerly surges briefly bringing winds close to or above Small Craft Exercise Caution during the overnight hours. Some afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible each day with winds and seas higher in and near thunderstorms. Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk continues through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 74 92 74 91 / 20 60 40 80 SSI 77 91 79 91 / 30 50 40 60 JAX 76 93 76 93 / 20 60 20 70 SGJ 76 92 77 92 / 20 50 20 60 GNV 75 89 74 91 / 20 60 10 70 OCF 74 91 75 91 / 20 50 10 70 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$