![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
316 FXUS62 KJAX 191745 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 145 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 900 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Another day of SW steering flow with plenty of deep layer moisture to fuel numerous afternoon showers and storms as the airmass becomes more unstable into the afternoon. Morning Gulf Coast showers and storms will expand inland and increase in coverage and intensity into the afternoon, with additional convection developing near the slowly inland progressing east coast sea breeze which will near the I-95 corridor and St. Johns River basin in the late afternoon. Additional storms are expected across our inland SE GA zones into the afternoon as another weak short wave trough passes over the area from the west. Morning cloudiness across inland SE GA and parts of NE FL near I-10 will delay heating a little bit and create differential heating boundaries to the north and south of the mid cloud deck. These boundaries ultimately will serve as additional convective foci into the afternoon as sea breezes move inland. The best coverage of storms is once again expected toward the I-95 corridor and St. Johns River basin into north-central FL where boundary collisions will focus this afternoon and into the evening. The main isolated strong to severe storm hazards today continue to be gusty wet downbursts of 40-60 mph and a localized flooding rainfall threat due to deluges under collapsing storm cores. The 12z JAX RAOB continued to show cooler than normal mid level temps with 500 mb values around -8degC with stronger WSW upper level flow around 15-20 kts and PWAT still above 2 inches. Given the nudge upward in anvil levels winds, some small hail is possible today. Max temps will near the low-mid 90s mainly near the I-95 and St. Johns River corridor toward the Atlantic coast before convection tempers heat. Heat index values will top out near 105 deg for most locations. SW flow will push convection offshore into the evening, with dry conditions expected by midnight through sunrise Saturday morning. A rouge shower may drift inland toward sunrise across portions of the Suwannee River Valley as convection begins to nudge inland from the Gulf Coast region Saturday morning. Mild low temperatures will range in the low/mid 70s inland to upper 70s toward the coast. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Southwest steering flow at the surface and in the mid levels combined with atmospheric PWATs around 2 inches will continue a near repeat of conditions from yesterday as late morning/early afternoon convection over inland areas that will track East to Northeast at 10-20 mph and reach the East Coast sea breeze that should reach into the US 17 to US 301 corridors in the mid/late afternoon hours and expect this convergence to trigger numerous showers and storms with strong/gusty winds to 50 mph along with heavy rainfall/localized flooding and frequent lightning. This activity should then continue at strong levels as it pushes E-NE through the Atlantic Coastal Counties/I-95 corridor through the early evening hours and into the Atlantic Coastal waters around sunset, with convection fading towards the late evening hours and ending by midnight. Timing of the onset of convection will determine eventual daytime Max temps, but overall expect widespread lower to middle 90s inland and around 90F at the Atlantic beaches and these combined with dewpoints into the middle 70s should push heat indices into the 104-108F range, likely just below Heat Advisory levels at this time. Overnight lows in the 70s over inland areas and near 80F at the Atlantic beaches. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 A mostly southerly flow through the weekend as high pressure sits to the east of the region, allowing for the sea breezes to venture inland. PWATs hovering around the 2" range, will see enough moisture for convection to develop along the sea breezes. Saturday, the higher chances for any convective development, will likely begin along the I-75 corridor and US-301 during the early afternoon and spread eastward towards the I-95 corridor by the late afternoon to early evening. The same pattern will look to continue on Sunday as well. Early afternoon showers will keep temperatures in check in the lower to mid 90s. Heat index values currently expected to stay just below criteria for heat advisory at this time for the weekend, but higher values will be expected along the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 The high pressure will still be present at the start of the period to the east of the region, with a northeast shift beginning sometime late Tuesday into Wednesday. We can expect to see the same pattern of afternoon showers and storms for the first two days of the upcoming week as moisture moves in from the SE keeping PWAT values hovering near the 2" mark. As the high pressure shifts towards the NE, precipitation chances will dip a bit as some dry air moves into the area, but still likely will see the daily shower and storm activity along the sea breezes. Temperatures will trend near to above normal with highs in the low-mid 90s and lows in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 142 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Mid cloud deck delayed onset of developing by 1-2 hours this afternoon and adjusted TEMPO groups slightly. Storms firing west of the terminals will continue to approach through late afternoon under SW steering flow, with high rainfall chances (over 60%) for all terminals into the evening as sea breezes and boundaries coverage. TEMPO groups for all terminals continue to advertise MVFR restrictions and gusty winds VRB 30kts. Stronger winds and IFR conditions possible in heavier TS activity, with AMDs likely later this afternoon based on convective trends. Convection will press offshore of the Atlantic coast the 00-02Z time frame with lingering VFR convective debris clouds overnight and light SSW winds at coastal terminals after 06z (< 6 kts) to calm winds inland. Shallow ground fog/mist possible after 07z Saturday where heavy rainfall recently occurred, but confidence not high enough to include in TAFs and only have 6SM for GNV and VQQ at this time. After daybreak Saturday, light SSW winds will develop with prevailing VFR conditions until the onset of convection into the afternoon once again nearing GNV first from the west. && .MARINE... Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 No headlines expected over the next 5 days as high pressure ridge from the Western Atlantic will be across or just south of the local waters through early next week. This will continue a general south to southwest flow through the period at 10-15 knots with seas 2-4 ft, along with daily sea breeze along the local beaches from the Southeast. A few evening/nocturnal southerly wind surges could briefly reach into the 15-20 knot range, but not likely to last long enough to warrant any headlines. Main impacts will be offshore moving storms during the afternoon and evening hours with strong/gusty winds to 30-40 knots, heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning. Rip Currents: Low to moderate risk of rip currents will continue through the weekend as mainly south to southwest flow becomes briefly onshore Southeasterly during the afternoon hours at the local beaches with surf/breakers around 2 ft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 72 93 74 93 / 50 60 30 70 SSI 78 90 78 90 / 70 60 40 70 JAX 75 93 76 93 / 50 80 30 70 SGJ 77 93 76 92 / 60 70 20 60 GNV 73 93 74 93 / 50 80 20 80 OCF 74 93 75 93 / 60 80 20 80 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$